#4 Ohio State, #5 Texas Not Looking Like Championship Material
Both Win Close Battles Saturday, Missing Market by 21, 14 points
The point of football isn’t to cover point spreads. So, it didn’t matter in the championship chase that #4 Ohio State and #5 Texas missed expectations by so much in Saturday afternoon nailbiters. But, in the big picture, neither looked like championship material.
And, THAT matters because…
*Ohio State was a preseason co-favorite with Georgia to win the National Championship. The South Point even offered a prop bet with OSU and Georgia at pick-em vs. the rest of the college universe. With a recent loss to Oregon, and Saturday’s 21-17 win over Nebraska as 25-point favorites…the Buckeyes are now just another name in the hat.
*Texas was on the short list of possible spoilers this past summer. Longhorns moved to #1 in the country with early “litmus test” wins over Michigan and Oklahoma as other top contenders lost. Turns out Michigan and OU aren’t very good this year. Those were just the illusion of litmus tests. Somehow Vanderbilt…VANDERBILT(!) is scaring everyone in the SEC. Longhorns got out of Nashville with a 27-24 victory as 17-point favorites.
We’ll start our recap of key indicator stats with those two games. Let’s see if they tell us anything about what might be happening in the 12-team postseason tournament.
*Ohio State (-27) couldn’t score the point spread in a 21-17 victory over Nebraska. Ohio State won yardage 285-273, yards-per-play 6.1 to 4.1 (Nebraska ran 66 plays to 47), and drive points 21-8. Nebraska won third downs 31-10% (OSU just 1/10!), and rushing 121-64. Both teams committed one TO and had one 4D failure. Buckeyes are dealing with injuries on the offensive line. But…there obviously wasn’t much margin of error for this group given the inability to get scoreboard distance today from what should have been an outmanned opponent. Talent is still here to make big plays (6.1 to 4.1 on YPP), but OSU couldn’t move the chains when needed on third downs. Definite concerns now about seeding, if OSU loses another regular season game or in the Big 10 Championship game. Tough to be a top four seed with two losses. Certainly a name in the hat. Tough to control your destiny in the hat if you can’t convert third downs. Big game at Penn State next week. BIG.
*Texas (-17) only beat Vanderbilt 27-24, winning yardage 392-269, YPP 5.5 to 4.3, third downs 60-25%, and TOs 3-2 (Vandy also had a 4D failure). Vandy won rushing 114-101. Drive points even at 7-7. Much better numbers for Texas than Ohio State. And, this was a road game against a proven spoiler. So, less concern here. Still…losing rushing is a bad sign given that Texas was trying to sit on a lead in the second half. Coach Sarkisian was raving about the guts and fortitude of his QB after the win. That’s what coaches are supposed to do. Better than throwing the kid under the bus! But honestly, when did beating Vanderbilt by a field goal become a test of guts and fortitude? Texas will also be looking at a potential second loss in SEC play or in a title tilt. Just being close to the spread probably would have relaxed the burnt orange faithful. A 27-24 win will not. (Horns will be favored in last four games, but no gifts amongst Florida, at Arkansas, vs. Kentucky, and at Texas A&M. Well, Kentucky might be a gift the way that defense has been playing lately.)