Positive response last week to our discussion of MLB “run prevention” in innings 4-5-6-7-8. So, I’ll try to provide updates every Monday when the sport transitions from weekend series to new matchups. Logical cut-off point…and there’s time to gather the information and write it up between the time Sunday afternoon games end and Monday night stuff begins.
If this is your first exposure to the concept, we’re going to aim our lens at something specific that’s often overlooked in analysis and handicapping. We learned a lot during football and basketball when looking at defense. In baseball, that’s “defense and pitching” because its all “run prevention.” Much analysis focuses on starting pitchers and closers…so we’re going to study “mid-game” stuff from innings 4-8. That would include “the second time through” a lineup for starters who may start to tire…plus long/middle relief.
If YOU are following baseball, you’re probably already studying starting pitchers well enough to know their skill sets. And, you know which closers shut the door…and which don’t. Possible you may have overlooked hidden strengths of some surprise teams, or hidden weaknesses from early disappointments. I’ll try to point out when there’s a link if I see something (Phillies were supposed to have a lousy bullpen after a poor opening series vs. Atlanta for example, then played 10 straight Unders before hitting a setback Sunday.)
Because throwing 30 teams at you becomes quite a blizzard once it’s all written up, I’m going to split the leagues into two articles. This report looks at the American League through Sunday’s games. All day games Sunday in that league made it easier to wrap up first. I’ll come back Monday before lunch time to run through all 15 NL teams.
Again, we’re only looking at what TEAMS are allowing in INNINGS 4-5-6-7-8 on a daily basis.
*SHUTDOWN PERCENTAGE is how often each staff allows 0 runs or 1 run in that five-inning stretch on a per-game basis so far this season. Cleveland allowed 0 mid-game runs to CWS last Monday, then 2 on Tuesday, then 0 again on Wednesday. That’s a shutdown percentage of 67% for that series for the Indians’ staff. The White Sox allowed three, two, and five mid-game runs in those meetings. That’s obviously a shutdown percentage of 0% for the CWS staff in that series. Percentages you see for each team below are for the full season.
*RUNS PER GAME is the average number of mid-inning runs allowed per game. I want to look at both percentages and runs for now to see what we learn. Maybe one’s superfluous. Outliers can mess up averages while NOT messing up the percentages (Texas and Tampa Bay both allowed NINE runs in innings 4-5-6-7-8 in their games Saturday….that can mess up an average!). But, averages may do a better job of helping you make Over/Under selections in environments of peak pitching vulnerability (“man, this staff is REALLY going to be bad against good offenses in good weather,” etc…).
*LAST WEEK’s number line in game order is also included, just so you can review what happened the past few days. Here, early in the season…it will help us monitor how extremes are regressing (KC allowed some runs this past week after a bunch of shutdowns in the first week). And, it just paints the picture better for daily expectations. If bullpens used to stink in the opening days of April, but made some adjustments and don’t stink any more…this could provide early clues.
Let’s get to it. I’ve ranked the 15 American League teams by shutdown percentage to this point in the season.
GOOD SO FAR (Minnesota, Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, LAA)
Minnesota
64% shutdowns in innings 4-8 this season, 1.6 runs per game
Last Week: 3-6-1, 1-0-0-4
Notes: Best shut down percentage in the Majors so far this season. We have to assume that some (much) of that comes from playing some games in cool weather, and playing in a division that probably has some lousy offenses. Let’s see what it looks like in a few weeks. For now, this is at least part of the reason the Twins are 5-9 to the Under so far this season. A lot of shutdowns.