Sunday began with at least the potential for surprises across the NFL…
*There was still a lot of uncertainty about how good or bad many teams really were.
*Several teams were in potential letdown spots after “statement” victories last week, or at least hard fought victories that might have drained the gas tank.
*Much of the card involved interconference games (AFC vs. NFC), the lowest priority spots on the schedule for many head coaches. Obviously…if you win your divisions your in the playoffs. Conferences games are important in the tie-breaker process. If you’re going to have a bad game, it hurts least to have those happen against the other conference. Some coaches prepare with less urgency, or punt the result early if they fall behind.
So, let’s keep those factors in mind as we run through indicator stats from Sunday’s action. We’ll go in more depth about team strengths and weaknesses when we update our TD-per-Drive Ratios on Tuesday (offense and defense), and when we try to gauge “market” Power Ratings in our Wednesday report. (That will be FUN because so many elements of “the market” are befuddled!).
Results are presented in schedule order from the Don Best website…
*Pittsburgh (-2.5) beat the LA Chargers 20-10, winning yardage 346-168, yards-per-play 5.3 to 3.7, third downs 50-27%, rushing 114-61, drive points (60+ yds) 17-3, and red zone TD pct 25% (1/4) to 0% (0/1). Chargers actually won TOs 1-0. Neither team even tried to convert a fourth down. Statistical squash, surely impacted by Justin Herbert not being at 100% for LAC. Tomlin and the Steelers know how to grab games like this by the throat…which they did.
Be careful lifting Pittsburgh in your Power Ratings after this 3-0 start. They have a high floor with Tomlin because of his strengths, but a low ceiling because he doesn’t have a championship caliber offense. Grinding works against equal or lesser opponents, and can give you a puncher’s chance against top competition. But, that approach doesn’t make YOU top competition. Pittsburgh isn’t suddenly an 83, 84, or 85 on our Power Rating scale (Super Bowl threat). Maybe a Super Bowl caliber defense…but a wildcard caliber team. Market pricing should confirm that in coming weeks.