Best and Worst NFL Touchdown Ratios on Offense and Defense
Saints Stellar on Offense, Washington a Waste on Defense
Tuesdays will likely be the day we update our TD Drive Ratio study on both offense and defense this season. If it gets boring or repetitive, we can always transition to something else. For now, these numbers seem to be telling the story pretty well.
And, they’re telling it in a way that mainstream and sports betting media seem to be missing. Both of those tend to celebrate individual stars…whether it’s media hype marking the league, or sports book hype encouraging you to bet Overs on offensive players. When THAT stuff is the focus, it’s easy to lose track of the most important team fundamentals that are causing winning and losing.
Numbers you see below are the numbers of touchdowns scored (or allowed) on the number of drives. I don’t include kneel down drives at the end of halves. And, I’m totally excluding special teams or defensive TDs. We only want to know which OFFENSES are hitting paydirt, and which defenses are preventing opposing offenses from doing that.
Not a perfect measure by any means…because a cheap offensive TD on a 10-yard drive counts the same as a 95-yard drive. But, over a larger sampling, you pretty much see which teams know what they’re doing and which don’t. That became clear this past summer when we started looking at this for fun. Seemed important to enough to make sure we followed it on the fly this season.
Let’s start flying. First, a look at how often each NFL offense has scored two games into the season…
OFFENSE: TD Ratio on non-kneel down drives
11 TDs: New Orleans 11/21
7 TDs: Arizona 7/17, Buffalo 7/18
6 TDs: Philadelphia 6/19, NY Jets 6/19, Tampa Bay 6/18
5 TDs: Kansas City 5/19, Indianapolis 5/19, Minnesota 5/20, LA Chargers 5/22, Seattle 5/25
4 TDs: San Francisco 4/19, Green Bay 4/20, Baltimore 4/21, Houston 4/22, Tennessee 4/23
Let’s stop right there for a moment. That’s 16 teams, half the NFL. We saw over the summer that there was a very strong correlation last season between having a good offense in TD/Drive ratio and making the playoffs. Over a large sampling…many defenses can establish some level of quality. But, the “tie-breaker” for being a winner or a loser is on offense. Bad offenses can’t score TDs. Those who can have a great shot of making the expanded playoff brackets.
I’m not going to suggest THOSE are all playoff teams. Indianapolis needed some Hail Mary’s to get TDs on the board vs. Houston. Tennessee sure doesn’t look like a playoff team. But, already, you can see the cream rising. That’s mostly good QBs (when healthy). Aaron Rodgers already has the Jets in the top six despite starting with two road games even though it was a 1-1 start. Schedule will soften.