Braves, Dodgers Rack Up Shutdowns, Yankees Still Struggling
Update of MLB Run Prevention Study in Innings 4-8 (thru 6/30)
Great hitting weather across the national landscape made it difficult for pitching staffs to post great numbers last week. Both the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers did so any way (as well as the Chicago White Sox!). Many struggled. The New York Yankees in particular continued to fade in a way that has to be worrisome for the coming months.
Time to update our weekly look at MLB run prevention in innings 4-8. You regulars know the routine. You can scroll right down to the numbers. If you’re new to this project, we’re simply trying to fill in the blanks and see if we learn anything by studying BEYOND starting pitchers and closers. Most media coverage (including sports betting media) focuses on starters and closers. But, so much happens in middle innings that it seemed like a worthy area of study.
Important terms…
*SHUTDOWN PERCENTAGE: which we’re defining as any time a staff allows 0 or 1 run in that mid-inning stretch of a game. If a staff shuts down the opposing offense, that’s obviously a great thing. Allowing 2 or more runs means the staff didn’t shut them down.
*RUNS ALLOWED PER MID-GAME: It can be good to know for Over/Under consideration which teams really get rocked in the mid-game. Wanted to keep track of that as well in case it was just as important, or MORE important than shut down percentage.
*RECENT FORM: I put last week’s numbers in game order in parenthesis so you can see what each team is doing lately. That will help signal any course changes (previous studs falling apart, previous stragglers fixing problems). Not going to put a lot of weight on recent form. But, sometimes you do spot course changes…particularly if you’re doing that week-to-week and paying attention.
ELITE (one team) and PRETTY GOOD (49% or more shutdowns in innings 4-8)
Philadelphia: 57% shutdowns, 1.9 per game (Last Week: 1-4-0, 6-0-2-4)
LA Dodgers: 52% shutdowns, 1.8 per game (Last Week: 0-0-0, 3-1-6)
Baltimore: 51% shutdowns, 2.1 per game (Last Week: 1-7-1, 2-1-4-9)
Minnesota: 50% shutdowns, 2.2 per game (Last Week: 1-3-6, 2-0-3)
Atlanta: 49% shutdowns, 2.1 per game (Last Week: 0-1-2, 0, 0-1-4)
Cleveland: 49% shutdowns, 2.2 per game (Last Week: 0-4-3, 2-5-0-4)
Philadelphia had a few games where it didn’t look particularly elite. But, three more shutdowns helped maintain a comfortable percentage lead over the field. Note that the Dodgers are best at “fewest” runs allowed on average. Might be some ballpark influence in there. Good teams find a way to get the job done in all the areas that matter.
Atlanta surged into this group with FIVE shutdowns in seven games. And, we lowered the threshold to 49% from 50% because it made sense to include Atlanta and Cleveland with he “pretty good” hunk. Though, if Cleveland has another week like THAT, they’ll fall back to the pack quickly.