Buffalo Beats Miami 31-10, Tua Suffers Concussion
Efficient 2-0 Start Keeps Bills on AFC Championship Short List
Wasn’t Buffalo’s offense supposed to fall apart this season?
After a summer of near-media-certainty that the Bills were going to drop back to relative mediocrity in the face of the NY Jets juggernaut, Josh Allen’s offense is still a force to be reckoned with.
4 TDS in 9 possessions last week vs. Arizona (6.1 YPP)
3 TDS in 9 possessions Thursday night vs. Miami (5.5 YPP)
Not a lot of raw volume this week because Buffalo only ran 45 plays to 75 for Miami. But, efficiency when on the field. Bills only threw six incomplete passes this week, after just five vs. Arizona. Red zone performance was a perfect 2/2 after a strong 4/6 last week. That’s 6 of 8, 75% scoring TDS in the red zone so far!
Sure, Buffalo wasn’t facing the Monsters of the Midway in either game. But, Jacksonville was just 2 of 11 last week on this field. Buffalo has seven offensive TDS through two games. Unless half the league scores 35 points apiece this week, not many others will be in that rarefied air.
Big win for Buffalo. Near disaster for Miami as Tua Tagovailoa endured a mistake-prone outing before suffering a concussion that sidelined him for the rest of the game. He may miss some time. And, he may have already confirmed in two games that Miami can blow-and-go vs. non-playoff teams, but will continue to be outclassed vs. quality. That was the story of last season. That was the story of THIS game before the concussion.
Let’s run the final numbers…
Buffalo (+2.5) 31, Miami 10
Turnovers: Buffalo 0, Miami 3
Fourth Downs: Buffalo 1/1, Miami 1/5
Red Zone TD Ratio: Buffalo 2/2 (100%), Miami 1/4 (25%)
I wanted to start with the possession-enders…because that was the main difference. Dolphins suffered three big turnovers, one of which was an INT returned for a TD. They also lost the ball FOUR times on downs. Those are virtual TOs themselves. Buffalo kept finding the end zone before playing it safe and running clock down the stretch.
Total Yardage: Buffalo 247, Miami 351
Yards-per-Play: Buffalo 5.5, Miami 4.7
Plays Run: Buffalo 45, Miami 75
Rushing: Buffalo 108, Miami 139
Passing: Buffalo 13-19-0-139, Miami 25-39-3-212
Third Downs: Buffalo 3/9 (33%), Miami 7/15 (47%)
Length of TD Drives: Buffalo 37-85-49-IR, Miami 70
You can see Buffalo was dealing with short fields for most of the TDs. Though, 49 yards isn’t exactly a cheapie. Such a HUGE difference between turning the ball over and punting as a general rule.
You might be thinking, “Hey, Fogle…why are you raving about Buffalo’s offense when it only gained 247 yards on the night?” Fair question. The ability to finish drives is worth raving about. Third downs remain a concern. Just 3 of 9 vs. both Arizona and Miami. We all need to be aware that Buffalo is efficiently “avoiding mistakes” while “finishing drives well.” Clearly not MARCHING the way a true juggernaut would. Being a big play offense can become a problem against elite defenses that are stingy about allowing stuff like that.
You regulars from last year will remember that Buffalo spent some time on our list with Miami and Dallas of teams that rout bad non-playoff caliber opponents, but are exposed as pretenders in a “Super League” of elites playing each other. This early Buffalo tendency of making big plays but NOT marching may be setting that up again. (Still time to be a pretender!)
Buffalo moves to 2-0 to stay atop the AFC East. Miami falls to 1-1, and can’t be optimistic that this year will be any better than last year any more.
Drives in Innings
BUF: 7-x-3-7-7----x-L-x-M-T (3/9)
MIA: I-7-I-x-D-3----I-D-D-D (1/10)
“L” stands for a “lost drive” the Buffalo offense didn’t get to start because the defense returned an INT for a TD. I use “L” as a placeholder to keep the innings visually lined up. I don’t count those when figuring percentages. “I” is for interception. “D” for a loss on downs. “M” is for a drive ending in a missed field goal. “T” is for grinding out time to end a half with a possession that isn’t just a couple of kneel downs.
TD/Drive Ratios Thru 2 Games
Buffalo’s Offense: 7 of 18 (great start)
Buffalo’s Defense: 3 of 18 allowed (good in context of opposing offenses)
Miami’s Offense: 3 of 21 (poor, and Skylar Thompson ain’t the answer)
Miami’s Defense: 5 of 20 allowed (not playoff caliber)
Thursday night’s college slate had an exciting game. Arizona State upset Texas State 31-28 in San Marcos. I was planning to run the numbers. But, as of 11:45 p.m. ET, the ESPN website still doesn’t have any game stats or play-by-play posted. Hopefully they’ll have that info tomorrow…and I can run the game stats with a summary of UNLV/Kansas and Arizona/Kansas State late Friday night or early Saturday morning.
Thanks for reading. Back in a bit with a look at how sharps are betting some of Saturday’s early college football matchups.