Cleveland Rides HUGE Second Half to 106-94 Win Over Orlando
Second-Round Opener in Boston Tuesday Night
Things were looking bleak for the Cleveland Cavaliers halfway through Sunday’s Game Seven against the Orlando Magic. Shots weren’t falling. The crowd wasn’t buzzing. Cavs trailed 53-43 and there didn’t seem to be much hope that this inconsistent, largely one-man offense was going to rally for victory.
BOOM! Cleveland won the third quarter 33-15 (keyed by a 17-4 run over the final six minutes) to take command of the game and its immediate destiny.
Let’s crunch the final numbers to learn the keys to victory…
Cleveland (-3.5) 106, Orlando 94
2-point Pct: Orlando 35%, Cleveland 49%
3-pointers: Orlando 10/31, (32%), Cleveland 8/24 (33%)
Free Throws: Orlando 26/30, Cleveland 30/36
Rebounds: Orlando 49, Cleveland 48
Turnovers: Orlando 17, Cleveland 14
Estimated Pace: 98 possessions
We called the finale of Clippers/Mavs a unicorn because so many things happened there that hadn’t prior in the series. This was even unicorn-ier. An ungodly number of free throws, with both teams getting 30 attempts when they only combined for 36 two nights ago in Game 6.
Combined FT Attempts by Game: 51, 52, 29, 40, 48, 36, 66
Those FTs helped drive a fast pace. As did a very high combined turnover count of 31. But, that was counteracted somewhat by a high offensive rebound rate. Orlando grabbed 18 offensive boards, Cleveland 10. So, 98 estimated possessions even with 32 “expanded” possessions” on the shot clock because of offensive boards. Track meet.
Franz Wagner of Orlando was 1 of 15 from the field. So many unicorn-y things just about that! How can a guy that cold keep getting the ball to shoot?! Have you ever been in one of those playground games where a guy who loves basketball but has no idea how to shoot keeps launching the ball when he’s open…and the defense notices this so they purposedly leave him WAY open so he shoots whenever the ball finds him? Must have looked like that.
Though, Jalen Suggs was 2 of 13. Legs may have been shot for all Magic starters in the final quarters of this grueling seven-game battle. Magic starters were 20 of 70 from the floor (29%), 10 of 42 (24%) not counting Paulo Banchero.
Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell found his seventh wind coming out of the halftime locker room, leading the Cavs with 39 points. Only 11 of 27 from the floor, but 15 of 17 on free throws.
Mitchell is the main reason Cleveland owned two-point shooting the last two games. Almost won the series in six. Two-point shooting in those last two went Cleveland’s way 60-45% in G6, 49-35% in G7. That after owning the stat 55-41% at home in G1, 51-44% at home in G2 in early victories.
So, Cleveland was a bit better than Orlando at “playoff-style” basketball. Definitely not going to be the case in the next round against powerful Boston. Celtics will have a strategy in mind for the guy wearing a superman cape. These team profiles help explain market expectations for a rout.
Regular Season Rankings
Cleveland: #18 on offense, #7 on defense, #24 pace
Boston: #1 on offense, #2 on defense, #19 pace
Cleveland prefers grinders…but that just means hoping its “average” offense can score in the halfcourt against Boston’s elite defense. Celtics will have to work for its buckets too. But, it has multiple weapons and much fresher legs.
Series Price: Boston -1200 (92%), Cleveland +800 (11%)
Game One Line: Boston -11, 208.5
Those are from Draftkings. Note that the percentage equivalents add up to more than 100% because of house edge. Celtics will likely be around -10 to -12 in all its home games, and around -4 to -6 in Cleveland. Barring injuries, this shapes up as another “virtual scrimmage” series like Boston/Miami.
That wraps Sunday’s NBA report. Coming up in the immediate future for paid subscribers:
*Sunday evening: UFL stat recaps from this weekend’s four games.
*Monday early afternoon: Our weekly MLB report on run prevention in innings 4-8
*Monday mid-afternoon: A look at how sharps are betting Monday night’s doubleheader featuring Indiana at New York (G1) and Minnesota and Denver (G2)
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See all of you paid subscribers three times within the next 24 hours. For those of you on the “free” option…part of that weekly MLB report on the interesting mid-game run prevention data will come your way Monday.
Thanks to everyone for reading this stat recap, and perpetual thanks to everyone who’s already paid for a subscription. Looking forward to the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Even if Boston/Cleveland does turn out to be a dud, the other three could be drama-filled thrill rides the next two weeks.