Denver, OKC Rally Late to Advance; Celtics up 3-1
Denver -230, Minnesota +190 in Confirmed Second Round Matchup
Monday night, Denver and Oklahoma City joined Minnesota in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Boston joined New York and Indiana on the list of teams who lead their first round series 3-1. Bracket dynamics are getting clearer with each passing day. The West is going to be wild!
Let’s run through key indicator stats from Monday night’s tripleheader to see what they might mean for the second round. Games are discussed in the order they finished.
Boston (-10.5) 102, Miami 88
2-point Pct: Boston 45%, Miami 49%
3-pointers: Boston 14/37 (38%), Miami 9/33 (27%)
Free Throws: Boston 16/18, Miami 9/12
Rebounds: Boston 46, Miami 42
Turnovers: Boston 10, Miami 13
Estimated Pace: 95 possessions
What does it say about Boston that it didn’t play all that great but still won by double digits? Big edge on treys was important. But, the Celtics were also a bit better in rebounding and TOs. Those little things add up, and still can lead to victory when the opponent isn’t missing so many treys.
Check out Miami by game from behind the arc…
Heat HOT Only Once
Game One: 12/37 (32%)
Game Two: 23/43 (54%)
Game Three: 9/28 (32%)
Game Four: 9/33 (27%)
Boston came out a step (or a few steps) slow on defense in G2, and Miami got a bunch of open looks. Hasn’t been happening in any other game, which were Boston victories by 20, 20, and 14 points.
Feels like this is a tune-up stretch for Boston rather than a real playoff series. I guess the high point spreads were saying that already. Celtics would still have been 3-1 ATS if they were -18 at home and -13 on the road, rather than -14/15 and -9/10.
Boston leads the set of scrimmages 3-1, and will very likely wrap things up at home Wednesday night. Early line went up at -14.
Have we learned anything about Boston in this series? Mostly just reminders that the Celtics are well clear of the Eastern field when other team’s superstars are hobbled or in street clothes…that this team can win comfortably even when it’s not hitting on all cylinders…but it is prone to occasional walkabouts that allow opponents to steal victories here and there.
At DraftKings, Boston is -245 (71%) to win the East, +125 (44%) to win the NBA Championship (note that those are break-even percentages for those money lines…to get “true” odds you should knock a few points off those percentages because “house edge.”)