Diving Deeper into Some Saturday Surprises
Air Force, Iowa State Couldn’t Score the Spread, Plus ACU/Texas Tech!
Yesterday we talked about how disappointing Saturday’s marquee matchups were in terms of entertainment quality. But, there were a lot of interesting developments in games hardly anyone was paying attention to. Let’s run some key numbers in those so we can all make adjustments to preseason Power Ratings.
Not an any particular order…
*South Carolina -20.5 only beat Old Dominion 23-19, losing yardage 305-288, yards-per-play 4.2 to 3.6, third downs 9/18 to 5/18. Hosts did win rushing yardage 174-108, and TOs 4-1. Get this! ODU’s TD drives were 75 and 75 yards. SC’s TD drives were THREE and SIX yards!! Two-super cheap TDs or it’s an outright upset. Yardage stats suggest ODU was the better side. But, those yards did come at higher risk which resulted in TOs. You’ll need to dock South Carolina at least a field goal in Power Ratings. Let’s see if ODU’s defense can sustain what happened here.
*Air Force -30 couldn’t score the spread in a 23-6 grinder vs. Merrimack. The Falcons only won yardage 237-217 (166-114 for what’s usually a rushing juggernaut). AF also won third downs 7/17 to 3/15 and TOs 3-0. Merrimack actually won yards-per-play 3.8 to 3.4. Do you know how hard it is for 30-point underdogs to win yards-per-play?! Air Force had a very cheap 14-yard TD drive, and a fairly cheap 38-yard TD drive. You might think I’m reacting to harshly about a 17-point win. THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN A SQUASH…but AF lost YPP at HOME to a cupcake, and needed two cheap TDs just to get any scoreboard distance. Essentially a 16-13 type game against an opponent most fans couldn’t find on a map.
*Iowa State -30.5 couldn’t score the spread in a 21-3 win over North Dakota. Similar situation where it was a double-digit win…so why the heck is Fogle complaining? History has shown this is a very important red flag. If you can’t score the spread, something is probably wrong. Cyclones were the better side, winning yardage 353-295 on 7.4 to 4.1 YPP. But, here’s what matters. State let North Dakota convert 11 of 20 third downs while winning rushing 174-86. What’s going to happen at the point of attack against opponents who AREN’T 30-point underdogs? Iowa State only ran 48 plays, to 72 for the big, ugly dog. You’re not going to control your own destiny that way vs. real teams.