As I mentioned in an earlier article, I’ve had a chance to get caught up with the big Euro 2024 soccer tournament that started the other day. I’ll start posting regular updates every couple of days…then probably go daily once the best teams are playing each other in games that matter most.
Right now, we’re in group play…where the field of 24 is slowly eliminating the eight worst teams to create a 16-team knockout bracket. Maybe that round of 16 will be exciting. But, it’s still likely to feature heavy favorites expected to take care of business vs. non-serious championship threats.
In soccer, I use a “goal supremacy” scale to represent the “point spread” difference between teams. You can use it to project a goal spread for any possible matchup. I’m not saying this is perfect right now. But, it’s a fairly logical composite based on current lines for upcoming games and the futures board.
(This is a case of an “innovation” that I mostly invented for myself—lol. I was hoping it would catch on…not because I was doing it…but because it really does help outline the scale of soccer events. Isn’t it better to know who’s about a half a goal better than other teams, or a goal better than mediocrities? Neither mainstream media nor sports betting media decided to go beyond the basics of hero worship journalism. Very disappointing. If you can say the Kansas City Chiefs are -2.5 vs. the Baltimore Ravens while doing hero worship journalism about the QBs, you can say England is -0.8 goals vs. Denmark before you say “the three Lions” five times in the next 30 seconds.)
You regulars know that 85 usually means “championship caliber” on the scale I use for football and basketball. So many teams are just separated by fractions in soccer, I use 2.5 as championship caliber and work from that. A few teams are so loaded they’re a bit better than 2.5. The differences you see below are shaped by what’s called the “Asian Handicap,” which is essentially a goal spread for each game…with guidance from futures prices to set relative ceilings of quality.
Quick example, host Germany is well-regarded and impressed in its opener. I have Germany at 2.8 on my scale (along with other favorites to lift the trophy England and France). Germany is about -1.7 goals vs. Hungary Thursday. That means Hungary has to go at 1.1 on the ladder.
Current estimates for the full 24-team field…
Group A: Germany 2.8, Switzerland 2.0, Scotland 1.3, Hungary 1.1
Group B: Spain 2.5, Italy 2.2, Croatia 2.0, Albania 0.9
Group C: England 2.8, Denmark 2.0, Serbia 1.8, Slovenia 1.1
Group D: France 2.8, Netherlands 2.1, Austria 1.5, Poland 1.2
Group E: Belgium 2.3, Ukraine 1.6, Slovakia 1.3, Romania 1.1
Group F: Portugal 2.6, Turkey 1.6, Czechia 1.3, Georgia 1.0
Should emphasize to new readers that those aren’t “my personal” team ratings. I’m not using those to find edges against the market. THOSE ARE BASED ON THE MARKET! I’m trying to set context for the event by determining how “the wisdom of all models” is currently rating the field.
If you’re only a casual soccer fan (or less), the USA and Mexico typically rate in the 1.7 to 2.0 range on this scale…with the very best versions of those teams able to a approach 2.0…but the worst (in recent years anyway) playing more like 1.7 or 1.8. The best “local” national teams are still a long way away from being equal to global powers.
You can see above that the top contenders will still be comfortable favorites in the Round of 16. If form holds, the event won’t really begin until the Elite 8. Of course, in international soccer, form has a way of not holding.
I don’t follow soccer closely. Not going to pretend that I do. Too many bluffers out there who just gush about the best teams and superstar players. Killing time in a hotel a few days ago, I was watching the ESPN-Bet TV show just before England and France were gearing up for openers. “Experts” “knew” not to lay big prices with favorites (that would be too square!), so they just switched to gushing about Kane and Mbappe before suggesting prop bets on those guys to do well. JUST AS SQUARE. But, somehow that’s acceptably square. Even presented as a “smart” way to NOT be square when it’s actually just as square. I’m so disappointed about how far away sports betting media is from what it could have been in this sport. Started several years ago. Quite a few big soccer events since then…but everyone just does the same old stuff.
Anyway, to help build myself a picture of what teams are doing, I look at box scores to log time of possession, shots on goal, and corner kicks. I found that adding up shots on goal and corner kicks was a nice “shortcut” to understand which team was getting the best of it on field. Not always perfect (and about the most rudimentary form of “analytics” if you can even call it that). But, better than listening to announcers gush about superstars and which teams have more grit or which lack character.
Sums of Shots on Goal Plus Corner Kicks So Far
Germany 15, Scotland 0
Switzerland 13, Hungary 4
Spain 10, Croatia 5
Italy 10, Albania 4
England 4, Serbia 3 (poor from favorite)
Denmark 13, Slovenia 7
France 9, Austria 5
Netherlands 10, Poland 10 (!)
Slovakia 11, Belgium 10 (!!!)
Ukraine 10, Romania 9 (Romania won anyway)
Portugal 21, Czechia 1 (wow)
Turkey 13, Georgia 10
One game for every team so far. Not uncommon for powers to start slowly as they build through a tournament. Not necessarily red flags for England, or Belgium…or any power that didn’t do what Portugal and Germany did stat-wise.
This little shortcut is often helpful for understanding current form heading into the knockouts…or recognizing which fake powers “run up the stats” vs. cupcakes before getting exposed vs. quality. I have time to put together periodic updates…so let’s have some fun with it. If interest catches fire in later rounds, we’ll have laid a foundation for understanding the tournament and media coverage.
That’s it for this Euro 24 catch up. Thanks for reading. See you again soon.