Great way to kick off the new NFL season. Defending champs play at home in front of a rabid crowd against a fired-up opponent breathing fire to get revenge from a playoff loss at home.
Sharps have had MONTHS to bet this game. Let’s see what’s been happening with the smart money on both the side and the total.
Baltimore at Kansas City
Opening line of Kansas City -2.5 stood pat for a couple months. I mean, the Chiefs had to be favored at home given the circumstances. But, the Ravens are a potentially very live dog that many sharps would love to bet at +3. Oddsmakers knew that. And, they were keenly aware that the Wise Guys WEREN’T laying -2.5 even though that’s right below the key number of three. Nothing in sports betting says “we don’t like the favorite” more dramatically than that.
From the outset…it was clear that many sharps would wait to see if they could get Ravens +3. If not, then Baltimore +8.5 would be an extremely popular option in six-point teasers. Right in the “basic strategy” window where sharps play any six-point teasers that allow them to cross BOTH the 3 and the 7 in one fell swoop. They move favorites down from -7.5, -8, and -8.5 to -1.5, -2, and -2.5. They do the opposite with short dogs, moving them up over a TD.
After a couple of months, early public money on the cheap favorite and a handful of sharps betting the favorite lifted the number from KC -2.5 to -3. Dog lovers started taking some bites at a preferred line. But, oddsmakers didn’t want to hop back and forth all summer. Limits weren’t high yet across the national landscape. Game sat at three for a few weeks. Recently, a little back and forth between KC -2.5 and Baltimore +3.