How Sharps are Betting Saturday's NBA Playoffs (4/20)
Wall-to-Wall Basketball Featuring Marquee Matchups!
It’s always one of the most exciting days of the NBA postseason. The first full day of playoff action with potentially great games from lunch until bedtime. Only a few of these “grand slams” every year. Gotta enjoy them when they happen.
We’ll run through today’s action in the order you’ll watch them on ESPN and ABC. Here’s a look at how sharps (professional bettors that shape the lines and totals) have been betting so far…
Orlando at Cleveland (1 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Opening line of Cleveland -4.5 dropped to -4 fairly quickly. A lot of back and forth between those two numbers out of the gate. Market eventually settled on Cleveland -4 for a long while. That’s since climbed the ladder to -4.5 and -5 in recent betting. Reads very much like an early disagreement between sharps at Cleveland -4 and Orlando +4.5. Once the public started betting, they were on the seemingly affordable home favorite. And, that support was enough to drown out what dog lovers were doing with the Magic.
*Some sharps like Cleveland -4, but weren’t laying -4.5, and won’t be laying -5
*Dog lovers like Orlando at +4.5 or better, but aren’t counteracting recent public support for the home favorite
*The public likes Cleveland at -4.5 or lower. Time will tell about -5
Opening total of 207.5 dropped to a low of 206.5 before climbing the ladder back to the opener. There probably won’t be dramatic Under moves this weekend because no series openers are “life and death” games where teams are facing elimination. History has often shown more relaxed defense early in a series before things really clamp down later. Here, some money that mattered liked Under 207.5 and 207. Looks like it’s mostly public interest that has lifted the number back to where it started. Recreational bettors love rooting for points, so they generally bet Overs.
If you’re only focused on how sharps are betting, some lukewarm interest on Under 207.5 and 207. Not much passion, or the drop would have been further…and we’d have already seen rebuys after the rise. Hasn’t happened yet.