Favorites swept the board Saturday as action in the main brackets of the NBA Playoffs finally got underway. Occasional flurries of drama and suspense. Mostly a day that dog lovers want to forget (like much of the Big Dance). Recreational basketball bettors stay happy. Let’s see what’s happening so far in Sunday’s markets.
Miami at Boston (1 p.m. ET, ABC)
Opening line of Boston -13.5 was bet up to -14 relatively quickly. Has stood pat ever since. We know that some sharps liked Boston to win a blowout, and wanted to get in before any public interest on the chalk. The lack of movement since could be a case of almost everyone leaving the game alone because of the high spread….or balance between the public on Boston -14 and dog lovers on Miami +14.
Doesn’t seem like a game that’s going to generate a lot of buzz. Earliest tip and everyone’s assuming shorthanded Miami is going to get run off the floor. Might be some dog lovers out there patiently waiting for +14.5 (or more). If that’s the case, they may finally take some bites at +14 when time starts to run out.
Opening total of 209 was bet down to 208 before rising back up past the opener to a current 209.5. Might have been some matchup handicappers jumping in early because Boston ranked #2 in the NBA in defense during the regular season, Miami #5. Heat will also try to play a grinder (#29 in pace, compared to #19 for Boston). If you’re picturing a wrestling match, then 209 can seem high. Miami only played to 203 in extended garbage time with defensively soft Chicago.
Over money likely coming in from sharps who are expecting a blowout…with Boston running up the score. Recreational bettors prefer playing Overs because it’s more fun rooting for points. Might be some “I’m passing the game but I’ll bet the Over for fun” in the overall mix.
Generally speaking, liking Miami means liking Under. Liking Boston means expecting a blowout…which makes Over more likely. Betting between now and tipoff might have sharps focusing on the dog…while the public bets Over rather than worry about laying a monster number.