A clear dearth of drama in a Round of 32 that lacked upsets might have set up one of the most exciting Sweet 16’s ever. Blockbuster matchups all across the Thursday and Friday cards. Whoever wins those games will square off in marquee matchups Saturday and Sunday.
Let’s see how sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting Thursdays games so far. If you’re new to sports betting, please know that sharps tend to focus on “numbers” rather than teams. The “sharp side” in a game is connected to PRICE rather than “wow, the sharps really love that team.” First game we’ll discuss is a good example. Sharps definitely like Arizona -6.5, but Clemson +7.5 based on early betting. Who’s “the sharp side” if the game is seven? We’re focused on “how” the sharps are betting…how they search for value.
Let’s go in tipoff order…
Arizona vs. Clemson (7:09 p.m. ET, CBS—Los Angeles)
Opening line of Arizona -6.5 was bet up to -7 very quickly. If sharps like a favorite at a price, they bet RIGHT AWAY to get in before the public. Recreational bettors almost always bet favorites and Overs. “Instant” moves higher typically represent sharp sentiment. The public usually doesn’t bet (favorites) until later in the process.
Yesterday saw the number rise another tick to Arizona -7.5. Sharps had stopped backing Arizona at -7. “Squares” were betting the highly regarded favorite. Sportsbooks lifted the line to attract Clemson money. It worked! Sharp dog lovers jumped hard on Clemson +7.5. We’re at a solid seven as I write this. Very clear floor at -6.5, and ceiling at +7.5. From now to tip off, we’ll probably sit on seven, or hop back and forth between 7 and 7.5 in a “Pros vs. Joe’s” type battle. Sharps that preferred Arizona are already in at -6.5.
Opening total of 152 hasn’t moved. Strange to see that through so many days. But, it suggests very clearly that sharps DON’T like the Over. They would have lifted the number in advance of public interest. For now, sharps don’t seem interested in the Under either. There’s been enough time for Under lovers to accept that 152 might be the best they’re going to get. So, this is either a complete pass for sharps…or there are some VERY patient Under guys waiting to see if 152.5 or 153 become available before tipoff.
Worth noting that Kenpom made the total 154 on an 80-74 Arizona victory. Quants in general line up with Kenpom because they use similar methods to project outcomes. Those guys AREN’T betting the Over despite a grading.
Anything going on? I think it’s possible that the early starting time is creating skepticism about a high-energy start. This game is in Los Angeles, which means it’s starting at 4:09 in the afternoon local time. Arena may be partially empty because it’s such a goofy local tipoff. Sharps do pay attention to things like that.
Game Notes: Not seeing any stars align in the stuff we pay the most attention to. You regulars know I was skeptical about Arizona being a serious championship threat because they go on so many brain-dead walk-abouts. Cost them in the Pac 12 tourney, and a few other times. Was also skeptical about Clemson coming in. Yes, the Tigers have impressed…but they were also helped by New Mexico shooting 3 of 23 on treys, Baylor 6 of 24 (well below Baylor’s norm). Nothing around plus-or-minus eight points from the point spread would surprise me on the team side. On the total, hard to be interested if the sharps aren’t.