Only two games on the Wednesday night NBA Playoff schedule. Gives us a chance to breathe before things get busy again. Let’s see how sharps are betting tonight’s twin bill.
Miami at Boston (7 p.m. ET, TNT)
Opening line of Miami -15 sat for a long time before coming down to 14.5. The long dry period up front meant that sharps DIDN’T like the favorite. You regulars know they would have laid points right away if that were the case. Dog lovers waited to see if the public lifted the line higher. Less likely to happen at HUGE spreads like this in the playoffs. Public is more likely to stick a team like Boston into money line parlays rather than lay monster chalk. Dog lovers finally accepted that +15 was the best they were going to get.
Opening total 207 crashed to a floor of 202.5 before bouncing back up to 203.5. First game landed on 208 (114-94), only staying Under 210 by two points. But, that series opener saw Boston shoot a great 22/49 on treys (45%) while Miami shot a hot 59% on two’s (26/44). Clearly some matchup handicappers normalized those percentages a bit and like Under 204 or more. Money that mattered did like Over 202.5 and 203.
Likely that some of the dog lovers at +15 were also driving the early Under moves. Miami did rank #5 in the NBA on defense in the regular season. If you like Miami to play well, you’re going to like the initial Unders too.
Summing up, sharps like Miami +15 (but aren’t all that enthusiastic yet about +14.5). Sharps like Under 204 or higher, but some do like Over 203 or less.