We don’t have a clear theme Wednesday night in the Eastern Conference play-in games. Last night in the West…sharps were pounding the Unders so clearly and obviously it was impossible to miss! Tonight…there’s actually sharps support for an Over…and one game with intensive back-and-forth action on the team side.
Let’s take them in the order they’ll be played, starting with the much-anticipated Miami/Philadelphia battle that should have the feel of a later-round matchup given these talented rosters.
Miami at Philadelphia (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Opening line of Philadelphia -4.5 was bet up fairly quickly to -5. You regulars know that means sharp support for the favorite at that price. Sharps that prefer a favorite jump in quickly in case public support for the chalk side lifts the line even higher. Recreational bettors tend to bet favorites in TV games, particularly seemingly affordable home teams. Some sharps liked the Sixers -4.5.
Line sat at -5 for a couple days. Dog lovers started assuming +5 was the best they were going to get with the Heat. They started nibbling. Line dropped back to 4.5. In recent hours, it looks like a tug-of-war between the public and sharp dog lovers has developed…
*Recreational bettors drove the line to Philly -5 and -5.5.
*Dog lovers COULDN’T BELIEVE they could get Miami and its great playoff resume (as a value betting option) with the hook. They’ve been hitting the Heat HARD whenever +5.5 is on the board.
So…while there are some sharps that like Philadelphia -4.5…there are more that LOVE Miami at +5.5. We’ll see how the rest of the day plays out. Public just watched two underdogs win outright Tuesday night. They may be chasing with the Sixers given how well that team has played when Joel Embid was in the lineup.