Huge Underdog Miami Shocks Boston! Thunder Roll
Lackluster Defense Key to Both Wednesday Results
We’ve seen a lot of great defense so far through early action in the NBA Playoffs. But, teams don’t always bring peak intensity on that side of the floor. Sometimes favorites get to overconfident and lose focus. Sometimes underdogs have nothing left in the tank after suffering gut punch near misses that take awhile to recover from.
An example of each in Wednesday’s double header. Flat-footed Boston let Miami shoot open-look treys all night, on the way to allowing 111 points on 93 possessions to the Heat (23 of 43 on treys!). Emotionally drained New Orleans allowed an even worse 124 points on 91 possessions (14 of 29 on treys) to Oklahoma City.
(Note: I’m using the possessions formula from Kenpom here in the NBA…just to keep things uniform since that what we used in our college coverage. Various analytics sites have different ways to estimate…so you’ll see some different counts amidst all the playoff chatter. We’ll all be in the same neighborhood regarding fast or slow…but won’t line up exactly from game to game).
Let’s run key indicator stats from results that both missed the market by 24.5 points!
Miami (+14.5) 111, Boston 101
2-point Pct: Miami 44%, Boston 52%
3-pointers: Miami 23/43 (54%), Boston 12/32 (38%)
Free Throws: Miami 14/18, Boston 15/21
Rebounds: Miami 40, Boston 39
Turnovers: Miami 12, Boston 12
Estimated Pace: 93 possessions
We talked about how Miami would have to play better defense in G2 to cover the tall spread. That technically happened, as the Heat allowed only 101 points on 93 possessions here, compared to 114 in 88 in the first game. But, this SHOCKING result was driven by a monster night on three-pointers. Everyone thought Boston shooting 22 of 49 in the opener was great. Miami was 23 of 43! (Are the rims only 9 feet tall in Boston?!)
That helped lift the game Over. Games have landed on 208 and 212 with outlier performances on treys. We might see one of those 79-77 grinders common a few decades ago if there’s a night when nobody’s making bombs. To this point, a slow, methodical series with a ton of made treys.
Another classic zig-zag sequence with Miami covering the 1Q (28-27 win), the 1H (61-58 loss getting a bunch of points), and the game outright. Game One loser makes adjustments, winner comes out a step slow (or several steps slow) and can’t play to expectations. Market hasn’t really been guarding against that to this point. Might have to start if losers keep bouncing back so well. Far from a sure thing. Some years the elites really focus on getting things over with quickly, which can squash zig-zag stuff when mediocrities are just outmatched. Miami was far from outmatched on this night.
Series is tied 1-1. Boston still prohibitive favorites because it will be comfortable favorites in Miami, and HUGE favorites in at least one more home game.