Two teams earned berths in the NIT Final Four Tuesday night with quarterfinal victories. Because I’m old and inflexible, yesterday I talked about winners advancing to New York next week. Those of you following the NIT more closely than me (almost everybody until yesterday!) know that this year’s Final Four will be at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (home of Butler).
(I’m saddened for those of you who don’t remember the NIT’s glory days…when the whole tournament (!) was played at MSG in day and night sessions. How about Ron Baxter and the Texas Longhorns in 1978! Abe Lemons charmed New York media. I was going to tell you about it…but here’s the championship game broadcast from Mizlou on YouTube! Neither team made a three-pointer the whole game. You know why? Three-point line didn’t exist yet in college hoops!
Let’s crunch last night’s numbers to see how Georgia and Indiana State advanced. Note that these weren’t neutral site games. Ohio State and Indiana State hosted. I’ll have a sharps report for Wednesday’s remaining quarterfinals posted mid-afternoon Wednesday.
Georgia (+9) 79, Ohio State 77
2-point Pct: Georgia 52%, Ohio State 50%
3-pointers: Georgia 10/25, Ohio State 7/20
Free Throws: Georgia 5/10, Ohio State 8/20
Rebounds: Georgia 38, Ohio State 37
Turnovers: Georgia 12, Ohio State 10
Kenpom Pace: 73 possessions
Another fast-paced game for Ohio State under its new head coach. Another NIT victory for Georgia based mostly on three-point shooting. Game was very tight otherwise. So…the right team probably covered. But, those three extra treys sure mattered on the final scoreboard. Second-straight game where that was the case for Georgia.
Scoring on 1’s and 2’s
Wake Forest 57, Georgia 30 (second round)
Ohio State 56, Georgia 49
Winning two straight on the road is great…but it’s tough to just pencil in a third straight trey victory moving forward for Georgia (on percentages of 52% and 40%). It’s the most fickle stat in this sport.
Note that late public money lifted the point spread from Ohio State -8.5 to -9. Sharps hadn’t been betting the side or total since the openers went up. Going to bet some dog lovers took late bets at +9. Public just can’t help betting favorites in TV games. Though, recreational bettors on the Over did cash thanks to an 85 point second half.
Ohio State was a popular pundit pick in this event because the Buckeyes played with more enthusiasm and spirit after the coaching change. But, only beating Cornell 88-83 as an 11-point favorite in the NIT opener, and losing outright laying nine here make it clear there will still be issues next season.
Georgia will play the winner of Seton Hall/UNLV next week.
Indiana State (-5) 85, Cincinnati 81
2-point Pct: Cincinnati 53%, Indiana State 46%
3-pointers: Cincinnati 10/22, Indiana State 13/30
Free Throws: Cincinnati 11/17, Indiana State 20/27
Rebounds: Cincinnati 36, Indiana State 34
Turnovers: Cincinnati 13, Indiana State 8
Kenpom Pace: 71 possessions
Cincinnati maintained its “feisty dog” status much of the night. Bearcats led 36-32 at halftime. Indiana State would go on a 32-15 run in the second half (keyed by multiple treys) before Cincy rallied back to create a thrilling ending. Another game where public money lifted the line late. Some shops closed at Indiana State -5.5. Hosts needed nine extra points on treys and nine extra points on FTs just to win the game by four.
Might have been some home cooking in the mix given those 10 extra free throw attempts. Another game were treys loomed very large. Cincinnati won scoring on 1’s and 2’s by a 51-46 count.
We’re in a parity-level tournament where everyone’s pretty close together on the bell curve. The fickle stuff has a way of ruling game-to-game, but can also create illusions about team skill sets. Are the winners showing guts under pressure, or just catching some math breaks on treys?
Indiana State will play the winner of Utah/Virginia Commonwealth next week. Soft defense will be a concern, even if the site isn’t 100% neutral for the Sycamores. Defense allowed 81 points on 71 possessions last night, after allowing 92 points on 74 possessions to SMU back in the NIT opener. A matchup with Utah in particular could be challenging. Similar styles, but Utah has the better defense.
Current Kenpom Rankings
Utah: #48 on offense, #46 on defense, #60 pace
ISU: #16 on offense, #109 on defense, #38 pace
Versus VCU, a team slightly inferior to Utah in the big picture…but possibly positioned to disrupt Illinois State by slowing down pace.
Current Kenpom Rankings
VCU: #105 on offense, #43 on defense, #300 pace
ISU: #16 on offense, #109 on defense, #38 pace
NIT’s Final Four will be fun to follow after a busy weekend in the NCAA’s.
Back with you mid-afternoon to see how sharps have been betting UNLV/Seton Hall and VCU/Utah. Thanks for reading and subscribing.