Most of you watched as it happened. If you went to bed earlier, you likely know by now that Baltimore was an inch away from scoring a touchdown that would have set up a two-point conversion attempt to determine the winner on the game’s final play.
Kansas City survived 27-20. It was almost a 27-26 win for the Chiefs, or a 28-27 loss. Important when the point spread for bettors was either 2.5 or 3! Also important for totals bettors that got in at 47.
Which score best represents what “really” happened on the field? Was it a true nailbiter where both teams confirmed their Power Rating bona fides? Or, was Baltimore lucky to be that close at the very end? Let’s run the numbers…
Kansas City (-2.5) 27, Baltimore 20
Total Yardage: Baltimore 452, Kansas City 353
Yards-per-Play: Baltimore 6.1, Kansas City 7.1
Plays Run: Baltimore 74, Kansas City 50
On social media this morning, there was a little bit of “how did Baltimore lose this game?! Ravens won total yardage 452-352!” Yardage was a direct result of running 24 more offensive plays. Kansas City was great much more quickly, on fewer plays. Baltimore moved the ball well against a stellar defense. That 7.1 for KC was a fantastic number against this defense in a potential rust spot. VERY SCARY for the rest of the NFL that Kansas City has improved its receiving corps this much just after what was already a championship season.
All kinda comes out in the wash. Kansas City was more explosive while being productive quickly. Baltimore came an inch away from matching that by marching more slowly. A 27-26 type finish would have been a good final score for those numbers.
Rushing: Baltimore 185, Kansas City 72
Passing: Baltimore 26-41-0-267, Kansas City 20-28-1-281
Baltimore doing THAT on the road at Kansas City would be enough to win any other game. Ravens clearly an AFC elite, even with an offensive line that’s still getting acquainted. Ravens run game will be a handful for anyone to deal with, though the QB probably shouldn’t take off and scamper so much. Injury waiting to happen. (Still a question for the Ravens, can they win when he DOESN’T have the ability to do that…either through injury or coaching emphasis?)
Oh, remember when looking at passing lines…don’t just skip ahead to yardage like the mainstream and network hype-sters do. Look at incomplete passes first. Mahomes won that 8 to 15. Sharpness and efficiency are often more important than raw volume in passing stats.
Third Downs: Baltimore 50% (7/14), Kansas City 44% (4/9)
Fourth Downs: Baltimore 1/2, Kansas City 0/0
Turnovers: Baltimore 1, Kansas City 1
Length of TD Drives: Baltimore 70-80, Kansas City 67-81-70
Ravens an inch away from tacking an 87-yd TD drive on the end there. That, plus a 4D failure and a missed field goal try are why the score wasn’t tighter…and, arguably, why it wasn’t a close Baltimore win.
Drives in Innings
BA: 7-x-F-D-M-3----x-7-3-T (2/10)
KC: 7-x-3-3-I---------7-x-7-x (3/9)
F is for Fumble, I for Interception, D for loss on Downs, M for Missed field goal try, T is for time running out on an extended drive at the end of a half. (I don’t include kneel-down drives of just a few plays.)
Probably okay to think of Baltimore as 3/10 rather than 2/10 as you move forward handicapping Ravens’ games. It’s unlikely they’ll struggle to score against defenses worse than KC. And, most defenses are worse than KC.
May just be a thing that happened rather than being relevant…but it’s interesting that Kansas City scored TDs on the “peak preparation” drives at the beginning of each half, but was then just 1/7 hitting paydirt on other drives. Probably a good idea to see if “well-coached” teams are productive on opening drives…while more questionable coaches flounder out of the gate. And, to determine if KC becomes more mortal on the drive that don’t have extended preparation.
Fun game. Great way to start a season. I was kinda floored by the MASSIVE all-day coverage of “Can Kansas City three-peat?” across all media platforms. I understand it’s on people’s minds. But, I don’t think it was on people’s minds to that RIDICULOUSLY EXTREME, TOP OF THE LUNGS, EVERY PRE-GAME DISCUSSION, ALL-DAY LONG AND THROUGH A WEATHER DELAY degree.
Did everyone forget that KC barely got by Buffalo in the playoffs, and barely got by SF in the Super Bowl? Did everyone forget that KC actually LOST AT HOME to Detroit last season in the first game after a Super Bowl win?
Pre-game on-field interview with Mahomes could have been “how do you avoid what happened last year against Detroit this time around?” Instead it was GUSH-GUSH-GUSH---why are you so great---why are your teammates do great---are you going to be able to do this great thing?!!!
Mike Tirico said something like (going from memory), “They won the last two Super Bowls and they’re the favorite to do it again!” Yes, but 6/1 on the futures board mean 85% to NOT do it, only 15% to do it. And, that’s inflated for the house edge. Probably more like 87-88% to NOT do it.
“They were a bit lucky to win it last year, and are longshots against the full field to do it again” would have been more accurate.
I’ve seen the term “sane-washing” in political coverage this week. Sports fans, particularly bettors have to do “hype-washing” if they want to get an accurate read of reality. I’m not saying Kansas City isn’t an elite team. Chiefs obviously are, and may have actually improved given all the big plays by receivers. It’s okay to explain that without sounding like a salesman.
Back later Friday for paid subscribers to see how sharps have been betting Texas/Michigan and other day games matching major conference opponents. Then, a report will be up this evening looking at Saturday night action including Colorado at Nebraska.
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