MLB Run Prevention in Innings 4-8 (thru 4/21)
Regression Clear, but Some Team Surprises Explained
As promised, I’ll update this baseball study on Mondays through the NBA Playoffs. Just not enough hours in the day to keep so many plates spinning at one time. If developments warrant, I can pop in with some bonus MLB reports.
For now, we’re mostly seeing league-wide regression away from early extremes. There will still be clear have’s and have not’s in this stat composite I believe. But, there’s too much professional talent (pitching and hitting) for anyone to “always be good” or “always be bad” (except for maybe the White Sox on the low end).
I’ll break all 30 teams into more manageable hunks today…from best down to worst. You’ll see season-to date averages in “shutdowns,” season-to-date averages in “runs allowed per-game in innings 4-8,” and then I’ll throw last week’s chronological number line into parenthesis so you can see recent form.
If you’re a new subscriber unfamiliar with this study, we’re playing around with pitching staff skill sets at RUN PREVENTION in innings 4-8. Most all handicappers and analysts focus on starting pitchers and ace relievers in the ninth inning. We want to focus on what people AREN’T looking at. That’s run prevention in innings 4-8. That generally means what’s happening to starting pitchers after their first time through the order…and then to the guys that throw middle innings before handing off to the ninth inning closer.
The term “shutdown” stands for allowing ZERO or only ONE run in innings 4-8 in a game. We want to see if there are any staffs that are much better at keeping runs off the board in those middle innings. If a staff just went through a three-game series where they allowed 0, 1, and 4 in those mid-inning stretches on Friday, Saturday and Sunday…that would be a shutdown percentage of 67% (2 of 3). If a team allowed 2 Friday, 3 Saturday, and 2 Sunday in those middle innings from four through eight, that would be 0% shutdowns because there weren’t any 0’s or 1’s.
ELITE (Above 50% shutdowns in innings 4-8)
Philadelphia: 64% shutdowns, 2.0 per game (Last Week: 1-0-5, 0-0-0)
Minnesota: 60% shutdowns, 1.8 per game (Last Week: 3-4-1, 1-3-1)
Cleveland: 55% shutdowns, 1.6 per game (Last Week: 0-6-1-3, 0-3-2)
Washington: 53% shutdowns, 2.0 per game (Last Week: 2-3-0, 2-3-0)
Boston: 52% shutdowns, 2.0 per game (Last Week: 4-3-0-4, 0-2-0)
How about those Phillies?! Still have a reputation for poor bullpen work. Popped four zeroes last week! Of course, the last three of those came against the anemic White Sox offense. Would fall to 58% if we just threw those out. Still elite!
Very important to note here that the four teams underneath Philadelphia all had shutdown percentages last week that were BELOW the full season mark. That suggests regression to the mean. Maybe Philadelphia would have shown that too if the Phils didn’t get to play three games against CWS.
Minnesota hasn’t gained much benefit in the standings from what you see above. But, the other four teams currently show a profit for the year against market money lines. Washington is the second-most profitable team in the NL behind Milwaukee, fourth-most in MLB despite having just a 10-11 record. Could turn out that this project at the very least helps find “big dogs” who can outperform the market because of mid-game run prevention…and “big favorites” to avoid because they’re worse at that skill set than is publicly realized. (More on that when we get to the bottom.)