It’s fun playing around with a new stat, or concept. You never know what you’re going to learn…or even if you’re going to learn anything.
What jumped out last week was that a few teams just can’t get their bullpens figured out. Tampa Bay (normally a smart team) was already bad, then performed so poorly in Chicago that the White Sox suddenly didn’t look like a minor league team (for three days anyway).
On the other hand, some previous strugglers posted shutdowns in a way that’s probably going to matter long term. The previously inconsistent LA Dodgers allowed only 0-0-1, 2-1-0 in six games (counting only what was allowed in innings 4-8). They will be the expected mega-juggernaut if that continues. Focusing on this stat category could prove very important for noticing when a problem area gets FIXED.
We’ll see. Still too early to tell whether or not this will be valuable. For me, definitely qualifies as interesting to this point. I appreciate you guys popping in to see if it’s interesting to you as well.
If this is your first time reading about this study (always new subscribers signing up!), we’re focusing on RUN PREVENTION in innings 4-8. Everybody already studies starting pitchers. Most everybody knows which closers are lights out, and which are not. Middle relief? Bettors just assume their teams should never allow any runs ever in the games they’ve bet. Focusing on innings 4-8 let’s us see if any starting staffs are having troubles the second time through a lineup, and how sturdy middle relief is (or isn’t).
In the data below, the term “shutdown” stands for allowing ZERO or only ONE run in innings 4-8 in a game. We want to see if there are any staffs that are much better at keeping runs off the board in those middle innings. If a staff just went through a three-game series where they allowed 0, 1, and 4 in those mid-inning stretches on Friday, Saturday and Sunday…that would be a shutdown percentage of 67% (2 of 3). If a team allowed 2 Friday, 3 Saturday, and 2 Sunday in those middle innings from four through eight, that would be 0% shutdowns because there weren’t any 0’s or 1’s.
You’ll see percentage of shutdowns through the season to date, average allowed per game ONLY in those particular innings to date, and then a quick snapshot of what happened last week in parenthesis. Some teams played seven games this past week, many others six. Here we go…
ELITE (Above 50% shutdowns in innings 4-8)
Minnesota: 59% shutdowns, 1.9 per game (Last Week: 0-5-1-1, 2-1-5)
Philadelphia: 59% shutdowns, 2.0 per game (Last Week: 0-3-6-0, 2-1-3)
NY Yanks: 55% shutdowns, 1.6 per game (Last Week: 0-1-3-0, 1-0-5)
S. Francisco: 55% shutdowns, 2.1 per game (Last Week: 1-0-4, 0-1-1)
Detroit: 54% shutdowns, 1.4 per game (Last Week: 1-2-3, 0-0-0)
Washington: 52% shutdowns, 1.9 per game (Last Week: 3-4-1, 0-0-2)
Boston: 52% shutdowns, 2.0 per game (Last Week: 4-0-1, 5-0-4)
Most important thing to notice here is that the Yankees are coming on strong. That was FIVE shutdowns in seven games last week to rise to third best in the majors (using fewer runs-per-game as a tie-breaker). San Francisco also jumped onto the leader board with five shutdowns in six games. Sample size is small enough that it’s easier to fly up, or crash down the leaderboard.
Minnesota and Detroit still represent the AL Central…which has been helped by playing CWS often. Philadelphia remains a team better than you’d think…but vulnerable to blow-ups ever so often. I’m probably going to be endorsing using something like “shutdown percentage” to evaluate bullpens rather than bullpen ERA. It’s possible to look bad in ERA while still getting a meaningful percentage of shutdowns that win ball games.