NBA Sharps Pounding Unders Again, But Floors Established
Big Early Moves in Bulls/Heat, Kings/Pelicans
Back on Tuesday, sharps (professional wagerers) pounded the Unders in Lakers/Pelicans and Warriors/Kings. Both of those games did end up staying well below market totals…even after significant line moves toward the Under from openers that were way too high.
“Playoff basketball” usually means intense defense and patient offense (though not in the Atlanta/Chicago game featuring two soft defenses, and an Atlanta team that didn’t seem all that interested in advancing). Sharp matchup handicappers and quants do their best to assess the impact. Oddsmakers posting openers are aware that sharps are looking to bet Unders…but have overshot the mark for the most part this week.
We’ll dig deeper into that dynamic as we discuss Friday night’s card. Let’s take ‘em in tipoff order…
Chicago at Miami (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
I’m going to start with the Over/Unders today because the moves have been so big. Opening total of 209.5 walked down the ladder all the way to 205.5. Less “air” initially because the opener was 209.5 rather than in the 220’s that we saw back on Tuesday. Still, four points in a halfcourt game is a significant chunk.
Resistance did show at 205.5. That appears to be a market floor. Current total is 206 as I write this. So, sharps LOVE Under 207 or higher…with some still betting Under 206.5 and 206. Probably some quants betting Over 205.5. Could be some “public” recreational money in that mix as well. You regulars know that the public usually prefers Overs because it’s more fun to root for points. Anyone betting Overs Wednesday night did go 2-0, but needed a miracle in Miami/Philadelphia to get there. Public might remember the 2-0 but not their great luck!
So, very clearly right now…a ceiling of 209.5 that won’t come back into play at all…with a floor very likely at 205.5.