NFL Estimated “Market” Power Ratings Entering W4
Fog of War Getting Thick Around All Classes of Teams
Still a lot of margin for error in any set of Power Ratings (a point scale used to estimate future point spreads) or Power Rankings (a 1-32 ladder ranking of all NFL teams).
I’m kinda stunned by all the “rankings” I see across mainstream and sports betting media. Some are from friends, so I won’t be too harsh. But…IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW about so many things right now that ranking teams 1-32 doesn’t really help anybody. It’s not even clickbait because people have to be tired of clicking on that stuff when everyone’s saying the same general things.
For example, let me take teams 3 through 16 in the numbers you’re about to see. If you’re only talking about NUMBERS, it would strike the naked eye that there’s a meaningful difference between, say, team number 6 and team number 14. That’s eight spot. One’s a surefire playoff team. The other might not earn a wildcard.
But, is there REALLY a meaningful difference? How could we even know so early in the season?
I’ll list those “3 to 16” teams alphabetically by division so there’s no numerical bias…
AFC East: Buffalo, NY Jets
AFC North: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
AFC South: Houston
AFC West: none
NFC East: Dallas, Philadelphia
NFC North: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota
NFC South: Atlanta, New Orleans
NFC West: Seattle
Oh…the LA Chargers “with Herbert” would probably be in that Power Rating group as well, as would the LA Rams with healthy receivers. And, I’m not convinced that Arizona and/or Tampa Bay shouldn’t be in that big hunk too. They “just miss” based on this week’s market estimate. (Also, Cincinnati might be a couple of points WORSE than the hunk…but they’re currently -4.5 at “Carolina with Dalton” which sticks them in).
You’re going to rank THOSE teams from 3-17 with confidence? You’re sure you see a difference that matters between #6 and #14?
A big fog of war right now. Just ranking THOSE teams accurately on a ladder is truly impossible. That’s before you get to separating all the crappy teams from each other. Please don’t brand yourself as somebody who can do the impossible. Or, whose shot in the dark is better than anybody else’s shot in the dark. Reality is about relatively equal things clustering…not about nature forming a clear ladder.
What you see below is my effort to gauge how “the market” is currently pricing teams on a Power Ratings scale. To me, this kind of “wisdom of the informed crowds” approach is better than any individual person’s opinion. But, right now, IT MIGHT NOT BE just because the market seems to be flying just as blind as everybody else. Hopefully this exercise will make us smarter SOONER as teams do a better job of defining themselves in coming weeks.