NFL Estimated “Market” Power Ratings Entering W3
Should We Just Stick Two-Thirds of League at “Kinda Good?”
When I was thinking about this week’s article before going to grab current point spreads, I wondered if “real” Power Ratings would be accurate enough if you just stuck almost everyone around 81-82 on our scale and let them play it out.
Sure, SF and Kansas City have to be higher than that. And, the dregs have to be down in the mid 70’s. A handful of those. But, can we confidently state that we know FOR SURE who’s going to be “playoff caliber” through a string of games?
*As was mentioned by a few people on twitter, all of the top Super Bowl future choices failed to cover, and most LOST OUTRIGHT in Week Two. (KC was lucky not to.)
*A few up-and-comers (New Orleans and Minnesota) had statement wins as underdogs where stats showed they probably shouldn’t have been underdogs. I guess Buffalo isn’t an up-and-comer, but is a “next tier” team that also scored an upset. Arizona had a statement win at pick-em.
*The Jets have established they’re probably at least wildcard caliber with Aaron Rodgers at QB. The LA Chargers may have done the same in the new Harbaugh era, though the schedule’s been soft.
I mean, how wrong is something like this below? Can anyone yet be sure it’s wrong? Beneath SF and Kansas City…
82: Buffalo, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit, New Orleans
81: Miami with Tua, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Houston, LA Chargers, Dallas, Minnesota, Green Bay w/Love, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Arizona, Seattle, LA Rams with healthy receivers
Can’t put Cleveland, Jacksonville that high…but they could play their way up there. New England and Las Vegas are also in the “not 80’s” class but getting some early results.
Where do New Orleans and Minnesota truly go? How far have Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Detroit fallen given how they played last weekend? Tampa Bay and Atlanta may matter. Is it really possible to differentiate in that “decent” parity class?
Based on current point spreads, betting markets have differentiated. Can’t say I’m in agreement with all the numbers. A couple seem inexplicable based on what’s happened on the field. Let’s start with the current scale estimate. Then, I’ll go game by game so you can wee why I’ve guessed the way I have about how “the market” sees things right now.