Back as promised with a look at how NFL defenses performed at DENYING touchdowns at the end of drives. A few days ago we studied the percentage of time that offenses hit paydirt after a drive. Now, the other side of the coin.
Let’s start with the best and work our way down the list…
DEFENSIVE TD PERCENTAGE ALLOWED
12% Baltimore
16%: Kansas City, New England, New Orleans, NY Jets
17%: Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Tennessee
18%: Atlanta, Buffalo
19%: Houston, Las Vegas, Tampa Bay
20%: Dallas, Minnesota
That’s the upper half of the league. Top 16 teams. It’s very hard to arbitrarily draw lines to separate “elite” from “pretty good” in that mix. So little separates 17% from 18%, or 18% from 19% that you make yourself crazy. Buffalo’s only a couple of percentage points away from GREAT, and a couple of percentage points away from middle of the pack.
What’s obvious is that Baltimore was in a class by itself at denying touchdowns. Way ahead of second place. Kansas City finally got some media run late in the season regarding its elite defense. We talked about that during the playoffs. I felt bad not noticing sooner, and was thankful to have read sports betting journalist Raheem Palmer’s notes on the matter. Kansas City’s defense was elite, even though it’s QB and head coach got most media attention.
While there definitely is some correlation between playing top defense and making the playoffs…this side of the ball wasn’t nearly as clearly defined as our offensive numbers the other day. Generally speaking, being good at driving the field and scoring TDs meant you were playoff caliber…while NOT being able to do that meant you weren’t. Here, great defensive units can’t overcome an otherwise lousy roster (Patriots and Jets, for example, elite defenses at getting stops, but NOT playoff caliber teams).
Let’s look at the bottom half…
21%: Chicago, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Indianapolis, LA Rams
22%: Jacksonville, Miami
23%: Detroit, LA Chargers, NY Giants
24%: Carolina, Denver
25%: Seattle
27%: Philadelphia
29%: Arizona, Washington
Same stepladder dynamic until you get down to the dregs. At the top, Baltimore was well clear of the field. At the bottom, Philadelphia, Arizona, and Washington were in detention all by themselves. With everyone else, it’s like the color spectrum. You can “see” the difference between blue and purple…but it’s hard to see the exact spot where blue turns into purple.
I remember several discussions about how Philadelphia’s defense started playing tired after a brutal schedule stretch. You can see how that shows up here. Very likely that this particular stat is a great RED FLAG for when teams are injured, tired, or otherwise fading from competitiveness. You don’t have to theorize about potential fatigue. You can just chart their percentages of TDs allowed by drive.
Probably something in the mix too regarding how well offenses run clock. We’ve known for decades that up-tempo offenses have a way of wearing out their own defenses because run-and-shoot approaches tend to score quickly, or fail quickly. No time for that team’s own defense to rest! Let’s remember to keep an eye on that as we monitor this stat on a game-by-game basis through the season.
I was thinking about a third article on this topic that shows offense and defense at the same time. If you’re like me, you’re looking at those and trying to remember the offensive number for your favorite team…or any team of interest for bets you might be making this summer on Regular Season Win Totals of Futures. WHY WAIT?! I have time to put that together right here, right now.
RANKING THE COMBINATIONS
San Francisco +17 (34% on offense, 17% on defense)
Baltimore +16 (28% on offense, 12% on defense)
Dallas +10 (30% on offense, 20% on defense)
Buffalo +10 (28% on offense, 18% on defense)
Miami +9 (31% on offense, 22% on defense)
Detroit +7 (30% on offense, 23% on defense)
Kansas City +5 (21% on offense, 16% on defense)
New Orleans +5 (21% on offense, 16% on defense)
Green Bay +3 (24% on offense, 21% on defense)
LA Rams +3 (24% on offense, 21% on defense)
Minnesota +1 (21% on offense, 20% on defense)
Tampa Bay +1 (20% on offense, 19% on defense)
Cleveland +1 (18% on offense, 17% on defense)
Cincinnati even (21% on offense, 21% on defense)
Houston even (19% on offense, 19% on defense)
Tennessee even (17% on offense, 17% on defense)
Philadelphia -1 (26% on offense, 27% on defense)
Jacksonville -2 (20% on offense, 22% on defense)
Indianapolis -2 (19% on offense, 21% on defense)
Chicago -2 (19% on offense, 21% on defense)
Las Vegas -2 (17% on offense, 19% on defense)
Atlanta -2 (16% on offense, 18% on defense)
Pittsburgh -2 (15% on offense, 17% on defense)
Denver -5 (19% on offense, 24% on defense)
LA Chargers -5 (18% on offense, 23% on defense)
Seattle -6 (19% on offense, 25% on defense)
NY Jets -7 (9% on offense, 16% on defense)
Arizona -10 (19% on offense, 29% on defense)
Washington -10 (19% on offense, 29% on defense)
NY Giants -10 (13% on offense, 23% on defense)
Carolina -13 (11% on offense, 24% on defense)
Just eyeballing that list, it’s probably worth SEVERAL articles in the coming days. So much going on in terms of what’s important…and what separates winners from losers. I look forward to those deeper digs. Up front, let’s at least be thinking about this stuff when projecting the coming season. Think about these questions…
*What has THIS team done to IMPROVE its ability to score TDs on a higher percentage of its offensive drives. What personnel changes were made? What about coaching? Is the team likely to be healthier. Really FOCUS on the ability to score TDs.
*What has this team done to improve its ability to DENY touchdowns to opponents? Did they fire a crappy defensive coordinator? Did they draft or trade for a quality pass rusher? If this was a PROBLEM last year, what’s been done to fix the problem? Don’t just rely on “bounce back” theories or point differential quirks.
Remember, sharp betting is most directly tied to TEAM SKILL SETS. It’s impossible to miss this if you’re studying BOTH team quality AND how sharps bet. They can’t hide this. They’re not betting trends, or angles, or the due theory, or “let’s just ride this hot team.” They’re asking “what should this price be based on team skill sets and any unique circumstances in play today (weather, motivational factors, etc…)?” Then sharps bet oddsmaker openers toward that price.
The ability to finish drives with TDs (or make quick strikes) represents a composite of skill sets. The ability to prevent opponents from doing that represents a composite of skill sets. Studying this stuff won’t make us 100% sharp. But, we’ll at least be swimming in the same waters, making better decisions.
Thanks for reading and subscribing. See you again soon.