NFL TD/Drive Percentage Separates Contenders From Pretenders
Sustaining and FINISHING Drives Determines Fate
I’ve mentioned a few times in recent days that I’ve been playing around with something for the NFL. All last season (and for eons in various venues), I’ve written about the importance of driving the field and finishing in the end zone. You regulars are already very familiar with “drive points,” (points scored on offensive drives of 60 yards or more), “red zone percentages,” (getting into the end zone REALLY trumps settling for field goal), and the like. This year, I’m going to make it a point of emphasis to study what percentage of drives end in touchdowns.
Obviously, this is not new. There are some people/places out there that provide drive data. Even occasionally, SOMEBODY WILL ACTUALLY TALK ABOUT IT on a sports betting show rather than settling for “that line looks a little low to me.” But, as a consumer, I’m not receiving that on a game-by-game basis. The winner scored three TDs on their 11 drives Sunday night. The opponent only once in 12 drives. Something like that which is RELEVANT but largely goes unmentioned because everybody’s either raving about an offensive star or griping about a head coach.
Last season for sure (and probably forever), the ability to finish drives with touchdowns is what separated playoff teams from non-playoff teams. It’s not that hard (relatively speaking) to put together an athletically talented defense that uses smart schematics to get stops. A lot of athletes know how to fly at ball carriers and tackle. A lot of coaches can teach the fundamentals. Less separation defensively in those skill sets.
Offensive skill positions? There aren’t that many Tom Brady’s. Only about a third of the league can solve the riddle, execute, stay healthy, and get the job done. That third makes the playoffs.
Let’s look at last year’s numbers. The numbers you see below are the percentage of offensive drives that ended in touchdowns (no defensive or special teams TDS are counted).
ELITES (25% and higher)
34%: San Francisco
31%: Miami
30%: Dallas, Detroit
28%: Baltimore, Buffalo
26%: Philadelphia
No surprises there. Shows you how hard it is to consistently score TDs in this league. Only seven teams could do it more than a quarter of the time. Definitely some room to quibble here about Miami and Dallas. We talked about that a lot last season. Those two teams in particular were great at running up the score on lesser teams…but turned mortal vs. quality. We’ll likely see similar grouping dynamics this coming season (though it might involve different teams).
I should also mention that teams in the upper half of the NFL in this stat may be a bit better than their numbers…but they use offense to run clock with a lead in the second half. Priority there is ending the game rather than scoring TDs. If SF or Buffalo really NEEDS a TD, they’re probably better than those numbers suggest. (Not true at the other end of the spectrum. Crappy teams are rarely in position to sit on leads.)
GOOD
24%: Green Bay, LA Rams
21%: Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minnesota, New Orleans
20%: Jacksonville, Tampa Bay
Cincinnati, Jacksonville, and New Orleans didn’t reach the playoffs but all finished 9-8. Minnesota’s the only team so far that didn’t post a winning record. Vikings finished 7-10 but were only -18 in point differential. A few plays here and there and Minnesota was also a 9-8 type team.
Essentially, 20% or better is “playoff caliber. And, this stat really does a good job of lining up with what matters most. You have to score TDs to be a team that matters. Great defense and mediocre offense isn’t going to be enough.
FROM DISAPPOINTING TO DREADFUL
19% (median): Arizona, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, Seattle, Washington
18%: Cleveland, LA Chargers
17%: Las Vegas, Tennessee
16%: Atlanta
15%: Pittsburgh
13%: NY Giants
12%: New England
11% Carolina
9%: NY Jets
Only Houston (19%), Cleveland (18%), and Pittsburgh (15%) from this group reached the playoffs. Houston making it to 19% with a kid quarterback is actually very good. Can’t really call that a strike against the Texans in the big picture. Cleveland was dealing with QB turmoil. (Pittsburgh was dealing with not having an NFL-caliber QB).You’ll see when we talk about defense in the near future, that all three of those graded out well at denying TDs on a drive-percentage basis.
Don’t think there are any surprises in that bottom group. Though, I was a bit shocked at how LOW teams like the Giants on down were. Horrible year to be a New York-based NFL fan. Some offenses can only score on about 10% of their drives. Loss of Aaron Rodgers for the Jets was huge in this regard. And, the Patriots thinking they’d be fine in the post-Brady was pretty nutso too.
Anyway…those results make it clear it will be worth our time to focus more aggressively on this particular element. Not sure if I’ll be able to pull that off in college football. Not many box scores tell you how many drives there were…so it takes awhile to add up TDs, FG attempts, 4D failures, punts, and TOs for every team in every game. Some NFL boxes tell you the number of drives in each game. We’ll see what we can pull off.
For now, something for you to think about if you’re handicapping regular season win totals or futures. Really think about whether or not your offense can reach the end zone often enough to cash that ticket. What happens if the starting QB gets hurt? Which offenses are likely to struggle most at finishing drives? What have you learned so far about creativity on offense from head coaches or coordinators?
This stat is saying “I MATTER” based on how the numbers laid out. Be sure you’re listening.
Thanks for reading. See you again soon.
so many ideas for study, so little time! Good luck with your summer research.
man this gets me so stoked for football season
thanks as always Jeff, i'm curious about 1H 2H drive points and coach tendencies w/ game state for some possible live betting angles. Sounds like a nice summer research project on my end