NFL Update: Estimated “Market” Power Ratings Entering 2024 Season
A few tweaks, more discussion from initial estimate
Not much has changed since opening lines for Week One of the NFL regular season settled a few weeks ago. Did a little tweaking in our estimate of “market” Power Ratings. This time, I have a chance to explain some of the thinking that went into our estimate.
First, here’s the scale. If you’re new to Power Ratings, they are an attempt to evaluate every team in a league (or tournament) on a scale that lets you project lines for any matchup. That allows you to look beyond the immediate horizon. You can anticipate point spreads weeks or months in advance, then make adjustments if needed for major injuries or changes in form.
Of course, handicapping and making smart bets is a lot more complicated than “just” keeping your own Power Ratings. But, that effort is the “base” for many winning approaches (as Billy Walters explained in his book). And, it’s a good exercise for keeping your brain sharp.
Many years ago, I thought it would be fun to try and “deduce” how “the market” was Power Rating teams based on the most immediate point spreads. Take my own opinion OUT of the mix. If we assume “the market” represents the wisdom of informed crowds (most heavily influenced by how “sharps” or professional wagers sharpen oddsmaker openers), then “market Power Ratings” just might be the single most accurate assessment of team quality. Who needs to read computer ratings from various guys or systems when you can just summarize “the sum of all models” into clean numbers?
This is an effort to do that. And, what you see below represents my guess at how “the market” is rating NFL teams based on Week One point spreads. For now, I’m using 2 points for home field advantage (three has been way too high for years now). If a point spread is sitting on a half point (say, somebody’s favored by 5.5 points), then I shade home field down to 1.5 points. That’s been the better strategy in the NFL in recent years. Home field just doesn’t mean all that much these days.
With THAT in mind, let’s start with a rundown of the current rankings. Then, I’ll go game by game in rotation order through the W1 matchups.
2024: NFL Estimated “Market” Power Ratings
86: San Francisco
85: Kansas City
84: Baltimore
83: Dallas, Detroit
82: Buffalo, NY Jets, Cincinnati, Philadelphia
81: Miami, Houston, Green Bay, LA Rams
80: Cleveland
79: Jacksonville, Atlanta, Seattle
78: Pittsburgh, LA Chargers, Chicago, Tampa Bay
77: Indianapolis, Minnesota, New Orleans, Arizona
76: Las Vegas, Denver, NY Giants, Washington
75: New England, Tennessee
74: Carolina
WEEK ONE
Baltimore (84) +2.5 at Kansas City (85)
These teams have to be one point apart based on our “rules” for games sitting with a half-point in the spread. Feels to be that both are still perceived as slightly worse than San Francisco. For now, I have San Francisco at 86, KC at 85, and Baltimore at 84. Maybe these two will drop in tandem and KC is perceived as even further clear of the field. We’ll see what happens as the season progresses. Not comfortable having KC at 86/Baltimore 85 because I think SF would still be a short favorite over KC if the Super Bowl was being played tomorrow. Happy with these guys where they are.
Green Bay (81) +1.5 vs. Philadelphia (82) in Brazil
Neutral site game settled with a half point. Would rather have these teams one point apart because sharps clearly didn’t bet this favorite any higher when they’ve had weeks to do so now. And, GB was more impressive late last season. I think 83/82 would be too high because Philadelphia shouldn’t be seen as that close to KC and Baltimore. I almost went with 81 and 80, but that felt too low for how well Green Bay closed last season. I think, if it were me, I would have made GB a one-point neutral field favorite…and then have it 82/81 or 81/80 their way. But, this exercise takes ME out of the mix. The “market” clearly sees Philly as slightly better right now on a neutral field.
Arizona (77) +7 at Buffalo (82)
A lot of skepticism about Buffalo this season after some personnel developments. A solid line of seven means only five better than Arizona on a neutral field. I don’t think many NFL followers would be comfortable yet with Arizona at 78…or dropping Buffalo as low as 81. Settled on 82/77 for the couplet. A combo of 83/78 felt too optimistic for both unless we see Buffalo will be fine.
Carolina (74) +5 at New Orleans (77)
Weird one for me. New Orleans kept grading out well in that TD percentage study we were recently discussing. Carolina was pretty helpless last season. A line of only -5 in New Orleans means the Saints are going to be pretty crappy this season, or the Panthers are going to take a step forward. Maybe this should be 79 and 76. Wouldn’t shock me. But, I’m not ready to guess that high for the Panthers in this market. I could talk myself into 78 and 75, and probably would have if I spent more time writing. I’ll stick with 77 and 74 now. Imagine little mini-bullets by each team.
Houston (81) -2 at Indianapolis (77)
Houston had earned sharp respect by the end of last season. Regression less likely here because we had YOUNG players early in their learning curves rather than a bunch of known quantities playing over their heads. And, a young head coach was getting things done. They have to be four rungs apart on our ladder. Maybe 82 and 78 is better…but I’m not ready to think of Houston that highly yet. Still some inexperience in places that matter. Wasn’t comfortable with 80 and 76 because that felt too low for the Colts.
Jacksonville (79) +3.5 at Miami (81)
I had this at 82 and 80 at one point, but Miami looked like a pretender vs. quality too often last season, and Jacksonville faded in disappointing fashion. I might well have them at 82 and 80 before the end of September. Remember that Miami and Dallas both had a tendency to play more like 84/85 when facing lesser teams, then fizzle against playoff caliber opponents. Wouldn’t be shocked if that happens again. Jacksonville feels like “wildcard caliber” when healthy. Makes this one trickly. I’m okay at 81/79.
Minnesota (77) +1 at the NY Giants (76)
A lot of teams in the mediocrity (or worse) pack that will either make some improvements or won’t. It’s possible the market is more optimistic about both…and this should be 78 and 77…or LESS optimistic about both and this should be 76/75, or even 75/74. Porridge felt right here. But, neither team should be locked in on that rung. Handicappers and the market will need to react quickly as all the non-playoff teams from last season define themselves in 2024.
New England (75) +9 at Cincinnati (82)
Burrow will be back, which means Cincinnati will be in the playoff discussion. I’m happy with 82 and 75 for now. There’s a lot of skepticism about New England entering the new campaign. That makes it hard to lift Cincinnati “with Burrow” to 83 or 84, because then you’d have to lift New England to 76 or 77. They have to be seven rungs apart with a line of Bengals -9. Using 82 and 75 works well as a starting point.
Pittsburgh (78) +2.5 at Atlanta (79)
Not sure what to do with these guys. Though, it feels safe that neither is an 80 out of the gate. And, Pittsburgh seems to have a fairly hard floor of 78 under this head coach as long as he has some sort of workable QB. Maybe 78 and 77 is better given some of the new faces in new places. Wasn’t ready to start a Tomlin team that low…and there’s no way I could start Atlanta as high as 80. This split all the differences.
Tennessee (75) +4.5 at Chicago (78)
Another messy one with question marks all over the place. Clearly some skepticism about Tennessee from the market, and enthusiasm about Chicago at least no longer being a doormat. Maybe 77/74 would have been better, but I wasn’t ready to drop Tennessee that low. Definitely not ready to lift Chicago to 79. That’s “probably” it, using 78 and 75 for these teams.
Denver (76) +5 at Seattle (79)
Similar to the teams just above except that it’s easier to make a case for Seattle at 79 after last year’s decent run. Hard, actually to drop Seattle to 78 even if you’re a bit skeptical. Using 79 and 76 works for me.
Las Vegas (76) +3.5 at the LA Chargers (78)
Tough one for me. I’m generally a fan of the LAC quarterback, and extremely skeptical that the Raiders are going to be happy with whoever they start at QB…which makes it hard to have these teams just two points apart. But, the rules say they must be…because we should respect a settled market. Maybe 79 and 77 is a better couplet because the Raiders will take a step forward. I’ll stick with 78 and 76 for now.
Dallas (83) -1.5 at Cleveland (80)
Fun one to think about. Dallas is always a soap opera. Cleveland was a novel last year, which set up a fascinating sequel because it was so weird having Joe Flacco in the final chapter. They have to be three points apart. Maybe 82 and 79 would be better. And, it’s certainly possible that 81 and 78 better captures a Dallas fade…or that 84 and 81 better captures too much market respect for the Cowboys (an issue last season vs quality). I’m okay with 83 and 80. But, I’d also be okay if this game was pick-em and they were only two points apart.
Washington (76) +4 at Tampa Bay (78)
So many NFC teams in that muck below 80. It’s weird seeing these teams so close when Washington graded out so badly in that TD percentage study the other day. Tampa Bay was +1% (20% scoring TDs on offensive drives, 19% allowing them), while Washington was an abysmal -10% (19% on offense, 29% on defense). Sharps have these teams fairly close together on a neutral field right now. Maybe 79 and 77 better captures that but I’m not ready to stick Washington that high yet.
LA Rams (81) +3.5 at Detroit (83)
It’s easy to think back to the best of these teams last season, and see something more like 84 and 82. Maybe I’ll be there by the end of September. They played an exciting playoff game against each other. Would rather go conservative, then let either/both prove they can hang with San Francisco through a full season.
NY Jets (82) +5.5 at San Francisco (86)
Aaron Rodgers is back for the Jets, which means they’ll be priced like a playoff team even though we can’t be sure they’re THAT good until he plays a full game! Definitely a playoff caliber defense last year for NYJ. I guess it’s possible those should be 87 and 83 because the Jets really are going to matter with Rodgers.
That’s it for this report on estimated “market” Power Ratings for the NFL. Back with you Saturday night to get caught up in the Euro and Copa America soccer tournaments. Some more baseball in that mix tool. Thanks for reading, see you again soon.