Last night we discussed how American League teams were faring at run prevention specifically in innings 4-5-6-7-8 to this point in the season. Today we’re back with the National League.
You’ll notice right away that senior circuit is significantly worse in the categories we’re studying. Maybe there are several much better offenses. Maybe there’s a difference in philosophy about when starters get pulled in the fourth or fifth innings. Maybe several front offices have done a poor job of building staffs. Maybe much of it is blind, stupid luck and everything will even out soon.
For now, it’s a BIG difference that’s impossible to miss. We’ve gotten into the habit of running number lines to express stat developments. That works really well here. What you see below are the percentages by team of “shutdown” performances (holding opponents to 0 runs or 1 run) in innings 4-5-6-7-8. You saw yesterday that Minnesota led the AL with 64%, while Seattle trailed the field at 25%. The numbers by “AL” below run from 64 down to 25, with a median at 56%. The National League’s median is 33%! Check it out…
AL: 64-60-60-60-60-56-56-(56)-50-50-44-44-29-27-25
NL: 60-56-50-44-43-41-40-(33)-33-32-31-27-21-17-13
Only four AL teams are worse than 50%. Almost the whole NL is worse than 50%. No, this isn’t because some of the games were in Colorado (only six, and one of the visitors was Tampa Bay from the AL). Nor was the wind blowing out several times at Wrigley Field. Staffs in good pitchers parks are still getting rocked. I entered this project with no expectations. THAT surprised me.
Anyway…with that backdrop, let’s run through the National League. Numbers are through games of Sunday night April 14.
50% OR BETTER SHUTDOWN RATES (Washington, Philadelphia, SF)
Washington
60% shutdowns in innings 4-8 this season, 2.1 runs per game
Last Week: 0-2-4, 0-1-7
Notes: Rare disaster Sunday in Oakland lifted the average up over 2.0. Nats were supposed to be a doormat again this season. So, this at least offers the chance to provide value as an underdog here and there. Quietly doing something well that other teams aren’t doing well.