Pacers, Timberwolves Light Up Scoreboards Sunday Night
Indiana Leads Milwaukee 3-1, Minnesota Through to Second Round
A pair of big scoring efforts Sunday night in the NBA Playoffs. Indiana scored 126 points on 99 possessions in a 13-point win over injury-riddled Milwaukee. Minnesota was an even more efficient 122 points on 93 possessions as it eliminated Phoenix.
(Note, I’m using the Kenpom formula for estimating possessions, which is shots…minus offensive rebounds…plus TOs…plus .45 times FT attempts. If you don’t care about exactness, and you just want to figure it on the fly when looking at a box score, it won’t hurt my feelings if you use “half” free throw attempts rather than .45.)
Let’s run the key box score numbers in tipoff order…
Indiana (-9.5) 126, Milwaukee 113
2-point Pct: Milwaukee 60%, Indiana 52%
3-pointers: Milwaukee 12/33 (36%), Indiana 22/43 (51%)
Free Throws: Milwaukee 9/14, Indiana 12/18
Rebounds: Milwaukee 42, Indiana 38
Turnovers: Milwaukee 9, Indiana 7
Estimated Pace: 99 possessions
Looking forward, it’s probably a bad sign that Indiana HAD to shoot lights out on three-pointers to get scoreboard distance from shorthanded Milwaukee. Pacers won treys by 30 points in a game they only won by 17. A bounce back from 13/49 (27%) back in G3 was likely. Elite teams don’t NEED three-pointers to win. Indiana appears to need them…against a team battling star injuries.
Indiana’s Treys/Results
Game One: Indiana shot 8/39 (21%) on treys in a 109-94 loss
Game Two: Indiana shot 13/32 (41%) on treys in a 125-108 win
Game Three: Indiana shot 13/49 (27%) on treys in a 111-111 regulation tie
Game Four: Indiana shot 22/43 (51%) on treys in a 126-113 win
Assuming favorites take care of business, #6 seed Indiana will be facing #3 seed New York in the second round (not a sure thing yet, but very likely percentage-wise). New York is better than “shorthanded Milwaukee.” Pacers will have to lift their game and play much better defense.
Indiana’s Defensive Efficiency vs. Milwaukee
Allowed 109 points on 98 possessions
Allowed 108 points on 94 possessions
Allowed 111 points on about 91 possessions in regulation
Allowed 113 points on 99 possessions
When a defense is THAT soft (ranked #24 in the regular season), the offense HAS to make treys to win. Not at all the formula for success in playoff-style basketball.
Indiana now leads this series 3-1. Game Five is Tuesday night in Milwaukee. Pacers currently -3.5 on the assumption the Bucks will be without both Giannis and Lillard.