Pittsburgh’s Defense Has Only Allowed 2 TDs in 29 Drives!
Offensive and Defensive Percentages for All NFL Teams
On Tuesdays this season, I’ll update our TD percentage study for NFL offenses and defenses. We’re focusing on how often TDs are scored as a percentage of drives (scoring 3 in an 8-possession game is more impressive than scoring 3 in a 12-possesson game). We noticed in a study last summer that looking at teams in this way led to a deeper understanding of the stuff that matters most.
Yes, it’s simple. Arguably too simple. But, sometimes, analysts lose site of the basics as they try to get more and more advanced with the stuff they study. They dig down into the microdata, come up with cutey-pie acronyms that only a handful of people will remember, then start branding themselves as experts.
THIS STUDY? Maybe think of it this way. You know how Taco Bell gets criticized for making “new” entrees that are just re-jumbled versions of the same old stuff. Everything still tastes the same (a taste many of us like). But now there’s a fancy new name that starts with “super” or “mega” and ends with “ada” or “ito.” This study is the opposite. Like a scoop of taco filling in a small bowl. (Next week: Just a Tortilla!).
That scoop of seasoned ground beef always did a lot of the work anyway. We’re going to focus on THAT.
*Good offenses find a way to score touchdowns
*Bad offenses have trouble consistently scoring touchdowns
*Good defenses keep opponents out of the end zone
*Bad defenses keep letting opponents into the end zone
My friend Chris Andrews of the South Point is a huge Pittsburgh Steelers fan. Pittsburgh’s played amazing defense so far this season. So, I want to start today by looking at defensive numbers. Not seeing many debate show clips talking about Pittsburgh’s defense. Maybe this will help put this performance on the radar.
Best Defenses (Fewest TDs Allowed by Drive)
7% Pittsburgh (2 of 29!)
8% Seattle (3 of 38!)
10% Minnesota
13% LA Chargers, New Orleans
14% Buffalo, NY Jets
15% Atlanta
15% Denver
I’ll stop after the top nine…because those are fairly elite and the parity hunk is about to begin just below. I think followers expected good defense from Pittsburgh, Minnesota, the LA Chargers (Harbaugh), the NY Jets, and Atlanta (staff changes). Can’t say those are surprises…though the extremes are a bit off the charts.
Seattle’s been helped by facing poor QB’s so far (Nix, Brissett, Skylar Thompson), so the jury is still out there. New Orleans is interesting because the Saints will be an NFC championship threat if TD stinginess seen against Dallas and Philadelphia holds. Buffalo might be ready to leapfrog Kansas City in the AFC just at a time when so many were assuming the window might have shut. Let’s keep an eye on Denver. There have been A LOT of possessions in Denver games because the offense has so many miscues and punts.