Saturday UFL: Arlington Gags, Birmingham Bullies
Stallions Re-Establish Championship Form in Nightcap
Decided to split the UFL into two reports this weekend. We’ll recap Saturday’s action here. Then, I’ll back Sunday night to see what happened in the last two games. Monday we’ll update our look at what MLB pitching staffs are allowing in innings 4-5-6-7-8. That’s at least a fun thing to play around with, and might lead to insights. Tuesday, the NBA Playoffs begin with some play-in games. Sharps reports for pro hoops will begin at that time.
Two Saturday UFL games to discuss. Let’s jump right in. I’ll put DC’s rally above the paywall so new readers can see what our game recaps will look like as context grows.
DC (+1) 29, Arlington 28
Total Yards: DC 259, Arlington 419
Yards-per-play: DC 5.9, Arlington 5.8
Rushing: DC 82, Arlington 123
Passing: DC 11-24-0-188, Arlington 25-41-0-296
Third Downs: DC 44%, Arlington 72%
Turnovers: DC 0, Arlington 0
Red Zone TD Pct: DC 100% (3/3), Arlington 75% (3/4)
I haven’t had a chance to watch much live action so far. I saw online that the game was about to end…and I figured I’d wait around so I could write down the post-game stats just after. Turned on the broadcast just in time to watch Arlington pull off one of the all-time choke jobs in football history! Seriously, all it had to do was catch a pass on third and short…with nobody around the receiver…to clinch what would have been a 25-18 victory.
*Receiver dropped the ball
*Arlington settled for a field goal while NOT running the clock as far as they should have (basic fundamental that everyone but the players seemed to understand).
*Arlington kicked off…and let the DC return man take it all the way down to the 20 yard line.
*Arlington allowed a TD a few players later, a very cheap 20-yd TD drive.
*Arlington allowed a 2-point conversion, still holding a 28-26 lead.
*DC had to go for one of those fourth and 12 conversion onside-kick equivalents to stay alive. Arlington’s prevent was so soft that it wasn’t a difficult conversion. DC only needed a FG to win!
*DC moved easily as Arlington helped by a cornerback inexplicably trying for an interception on a pass that went right over his head. (He didn’t know he was short?)
*Field goal was good…so DC stole a 29-28 victory despite getting outgained 419-259, which was 419-193 before the miracle finish.
Arlington had to be 99.5% to win the game when that third down pass was in the air to the wide-open receiver. Hard to know how much to blame Coach Bob Stoops for the tactical failures in the final moments. He’s mostly dealing with players who are showing why they’re not quite NFL caliber. Apparently they don’t play video games where clock management and aggressive defense is important either.
How can you adjust Power Ratings off a game like this? Arlington should have been running out the clock on a 25-18 win, taking knees with a 419-193 yardage edge. Instead, the visitor gets the victory despite letting a still winless host move the ball all day.
Important to note that the yardage edge was keyed by a 72-44 edge in plays run. DC actually won yards-per-play by a tick…helped by the late flurry. Arlington was 13 of 18 on third downs, didn’t turn the ball over a single time, and put up 19 points on drives of 60 or more yards (what we call “drive points” in our NFL and college coverage). Highest total of the UFL season to that point (St. Louis and DC reached 14 drive points last week, Birmingham would reach 21 a few hours later). Handicappers that emphasize YPP won’t have to tweak much I guess.
For me, DC never looked like an “upper half” performer in an eight-team league. Even during the rally, the dramatic turnaround looked more like Arlington being clueless (or tired on a warm day in Texas).
*If wins were based on yardage, DC would be 0-3 this year instead of 2-1, getting outgained 270-253 by San Antonio, 286-285 by Houston, and 419-259 here. That’s 0-3 without running into projected powers Birmingham or St. Louis yet.
*DC is 1-2 in YPP, and it would have been 0-3 if not for Arlington dropping a game-clinching pass.
*Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu wasn’t sharp again, with passing lines this year of 25-45-1-209, 16-32-1-212, and 11-24-0-188. Good yardage vs. Arlington, helped by the late surge. At least he avoided INTs this week…which is easier to do when you’re only running 44 plays.
We’ll see how the market reacts. Arlington may already be dealing with fatigue after back-to-back thrillers vs. St. Louis and DC. Defense faded late, and grades out poorly in YPP so far (6.4, 6.9, and 5.9 allowed). DC’s not playing to its prices in terms of game stats, despite scoreboard pushes the past two outings.
Updated Records: DC 2-1 (0-1-2 against the spread); Arlington 0-3 (1-2 ATS)