Seton Hall, Utah Finish NIT’s Final Four
Will Join Indiana State, Georgia in Indianapolis Next Week
Both NIT hosts in Wednesday night’s quarterfinal action enjoyed significant rest advantages over their opponents. As the public bet well-rested Seton Hall and Utah through the day, it was notable that sharps WEREN’T stepping in to offer resistance. Smart money didn’t want any part of UNLV (who had been jetting back and forth across the map) or Virginia Commonwealth (playing its third straight road game).
Box scores show why that was probably the case. UNLV’s exploitable defense (by postseason standards) barely bothered to show up…allowing 91 points in just 70 possessions to Seton Hall. VCU’s worrisome offense (by postseason standards) looked to have tired legs at altitude while making just 5 of 26 three-point attempts, and only 14 of 32 two-pointers.
Easy wins for the hosts set up the NIT Final Four in Indianapolis next week. Seton Hall will play Georgia in one semifinal, Utah will battle “virtual host” Indiana State in the other.
We’ll look more deeply at those games next week (and at Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchups in the Big Dance later today!). For now, let’s run the numbers from last night’s games in tipoff order…
Seton Hall (-6) 91, UNLV 68
2-point Pct: UNLV 55%, Seton Hall 65%
3-pointers: UNLV 5/21, Seton Hall 11/25
Free Throws: UNLV 7/11, Seton Hall 10/11
Rebounds: UNLV 32, Seton Hall 32
Turnovers: UNLV 13, Seton Hall 12
Kenpom Pace: 70 possessions
Fresher Seton Hall put things out of reach early. Halftime score was 44-26 for the hosts. No way a tired visitor was coming back from THAT. UNLV ranked #85 nationally on defense entering the game. That’s soft by “postseason” standards even if it rates okay across the full spectrum of 350+ teams (most teams “still playing” are much better than #85 on that end of the floor). Pirates had no trouble putting the biscuit in the basket. A very sharp 24 of 37 on two-point shots, and a solid percentage from open looks outside. UNLV’s defense didn’t even have the energy to foul.
Yes, the margin was inflated by extremes in three-point performance. Don’t think of the Hall as a juggernaut going into next week. Georgia has a better defense than UNLV, and a few days off before next Tuesday’s semifinal. But. Seton Hall’s 11 of 25 wasn’t way out of character with its 9/30 and 9/20 the prior two games. Reads as a combination of fatigue advantage and a bit of luck on treys rather than exclusively luck differential on treys.
To me, an important reminder to notice when sharps AREN’T betting an underdog. They’re usually “dog and Under” in the big picture. If they’re not betting a dog, even after a line move that would seemingly help the bet…see if you can figure out the issue (or issues) that are causing that skepticism. A specific team skill set weakness is usually a factor…and fatigue/travel/road court disadvantage are often magnifiers.
Utah (-8) 74, VCU 54
2-point Pct: VCU 44%, Utah 50%
3-pointers: VCU 5/26, Utah 13/33
Free Throws: VCU 11/15, Utah 5/10
Rebounds: VCU 35, Utah 43
Turnovers: VCU 13, Utah 13
Kenpom Pace: 71 possessions
VCU just never got its legs. Trailed 36-26 at halftime. Lost the second half by an almost identical 38-28 score. You can see poor shooting on both two and three-pointers. Defense wasn’t great either. Outrebounded. Utah only won on this floor by 9 over Cal-Irvine and Iowa. So, “jet-lagged” VCU was a clear step down in quality of opponent (“fresh” VCU could have put up a fight).
Utah will finally have to win away from home in the next round. And, that’s going to feel like a road game crowd-wise in Indianapolis against the Sycamores. Utes won’t have that home boost from altitude familiarity either. Will be Power-Rated to be close and entertaining. Same for Georgia/Seton Hall. We’re in the thick parity hunk of college basketball’s bell curve. Teams should play good games against each other on neutral courts.
That’s it for this brief Thursday morning report. Back with you early this afternoon to see how sharps have been betting tonight’s blockbusters in the Sweet 16. If you’re a new visitor, paid subscribers get sharps reports and game summaries for all NCAA Tournament games, will also get them for the NBA Playoffs that start soon, and will receive the same for the NFL and major conference college football in the Fall. A full-calendar-year subscription at the nexus of “reading the betting markets” and “reading the box scores” is just $75.
I will also do some write ups for the UFL that starts Saturday. We’ll have to see what kind of impact sharp betting is having in those games. Spring football is NOT that heavily bet (particularly early in a season), and line moves can be caused by a couple sharps rather than a consensus of deep, sharp sentiment. I’ll monitor the markets this weekend. Might write up a sharps report Saturday morning if there’s something to say. Will DEFINITELY do box score write ups after this weekend’s games are over. The BEST way to get an early read on team skill sets is to dig deep into the numbers. (You’ll see why half the teams might bench a lousy quarterback by mid-April!).
Thanks for reading. See you paid subscribers again in a few hours. And, thanks again to all new subscribers that have joined in the past few weeks after discovering this project.