Eight games in the early session, and a lot to talk about. Let’s get right to it.
Games are presented in tipoff order. Michigan State vs. Mississippi State is above the paywall to give new readers a taste of what our sharps reports are like. Cost to subscribe is just $20 for a calendar month (which would cover the full Dance), or $75 for a calendar year (which takes you through all college and pro football to a year from right now). Sharps reports, box score summaries that focus on the most important indicator stats that have predictive value, estimated “market” Power Ratings, and so much more!
The day starts in Charlotte…
Michigan State vs. Mississippi State (12:15 p.m. ET, CBS--Charlotte)
I was surprised at how many college basketball observers were mad that Sparty got a bid. You regulars know I’ve been super-focused on the Big 12 this year. So, I don’t know what’s been going on in the Big 10. It’s just weird for somebody that’s a true “bubble” team to get seeded as high as #8…then also open and stick as a small favorite over the #9. If anything, the market is telling you that Michigan State was Dance-worthy…regardless of what any individual pundit may be thinking.
Opening line of Michigan State -1.5 has come down a tick to -1. That’s it though. Only enough underdog passion to move half a point. True skepticism of Sparty would have brought pick-em or +1 into play. Essentially, a handful of sharps “lean” to Mississippi State.
Opening total of 129 has climbed the ladder to 130.5. Might be influenced by Kenpom making it 133 (on a 67-66 win for Sparty). Might also be some matchup handicappers looking at Mississippi State’s defensive vulnerabilities. Bulldogs rank well in overall efficiency, but were only #9 in the SEC in effective FG percentage allowed, and #13 in two-point defense. Might be a case where sharps worried about THOSE skill set deficiencies chose to bet Over rather than betting Sparty.
Sharps lean to Mississippi State +1, like Over 129 and 129.5, and may still be leaning to Over 130.
Not seeing anything emotionally that would point either direction. Both played well last week while covering in losses to respected powers (Purdue and Auburn respectively). Neither has any reason to be flat. Both in bounce backs. I have respect for Izzo’s ability to get the most of many of his teams in this event. I’d need to have more than that to suggest there was something here to attack with confidence.