You’re probably already enjoying watching day action from Thursday in the Big Dance. Let’s see how sharps have been betting the evening slate. Notes on Wise Guy action in this first game are above the paywall so new readers can see what the newsletter is all about. If you’d like to get a full subscription to receive all sharps reports, game notes, box score summaries, etc…cost is just $20 for a calendar month (takes you well clear of the full Dance), or $75 for a calendar year that takes you through college and pro football all the way to a year from right now.
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Colorado State vs. Texas (6:50 p.m. ET, TNT--Charlotte)
Opening line of Texas -3.5 or -3 has been bet down to -2. Rams must have impressed some sharps with that blowout of Virginia! No buy back yet on the Horns, and there’s been enough time for that now (at least, as I write this). Sharps clearly LOVE Colorado State at +3 or better, and still like them at +2.5.
Opening total 143.5 was bet up to a ceiling of 145 before coming back down to 144. For now, looks like a ceiling and floor are set within that tight range. Sharps arguing with their money. Kenpom made it 145 on a 73-72 win for Texas. That’s the ceiling. Some matchup guys are thinking it’s a smidge high.
If you’re new to the audience, you may not be aware that Texas was a god of first halves in the Big 12 this past season, particularly in the game after a conference loss. We joked that Houston was best the best team in the Big 12, and that “Texas in the 1H after a conference loss” was the second best. Also, that “Texas in the 2H vs. a league power was the WORST team in the conference.” Really big splits. Coaching staff seems great at preparation/motivation, awful at in-game adjustments vs. opponents who know what they’re doing.
With that in mind, we have to look at Texas (-) in the 1H here. Last game was a conference loss in the Big 12 tourney. Very likely the Horns will hit the court with enthusiasm. Colorado State won’t be tired off the easy win vs. Virginia two nights ago, but might be overconfident and a step slow against an opponent that’s much better than Virginia. Market is clearly enthusiastic about CSU’s chances here. I’m aware of that. CSU isn’t better than Baylor, and Texas just won the 1H 48-40 in Waco. Even in the tourney loss to K-State, Texas was up 39-29 at the break. Makes some sense to me.