Sharps POUNDING Unders in Tuesday’s NBA Play-Ins
Totals Have Dropped Significantly in Lakers/NO, Golden State/SAC
Yes! The NBA Playoffs are finally here. Today we begin intensive coverage of how sharps (professional wagerers) are betting pro basketball’s postseason. We’ll also have stat recaps of every game that will typically go up the morning after. Typically two reports per day from this point forward (though, there may be occasional instances where I have to travel, or some other unforeseen commitment means I have to skip a day and then catch up.)
If you’re a new visitor, or just a “free” subscriber so far…and you’d like to read this kind of coverage moving forward…cost to get everything is just $20 per calendar month, or $75 for a full calendar year that would take you all the way through the NBA Playoffs, the entire NFL and college football seasons, and college hoops through March Madness.
It may not be your cup of tea. If it is…just pennies a day for this unique flavor of tea. So many media entities are hesitant to talk about how sharps are betting. Or, gloss over it quickly so they can then talk forever about their own picks. Our sharps reports will show how the smart money set ceilings and floors for every side and total. I’ll do my best to ascertain why math or stat-based approaches are influencing the market. Studying box scores is particularly valuable for deducing why certain teams are supported or shunned by sharps (usually involves defense!).
Two games tonight. Let’s jump right in…
Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans (7:30 p.m. ET on TNT)
Opening line of New Orleans -1 sat for a very long time before rising a tick to -1.5. That tell us that sharps DON’T like the Pelicans. Sharps bet favorites right away because they know public money is usually on cheap chalk, especially at home. Sure, there’s a chance that the Lakers will be a relatively rare public underdog. But, if New Orleans -1 offered value based on game likelihoods, it still would have risen right away.
As I write this, the line is -1.5 after some back and forth. There are likely some dog lovers taking the Lakers with the hook whenever it’s available. And, public action could be more split than usual with the Lakers involved…meaning there are groups of sharps and squares on both preferred sides of that back and forth. Probably safe to say that Pelicans -1 and Lakers +1.5 represent the floor and ceiling from a sharp perspective. Any move OUT of that tight window from this point forward would be from public money (or a late injury/illness announcement).
Opening total of 228 plummeted to a floor of 223.5 before bounding back to its current 224.5. BIG MOVE! Sharps often bet playoff Unders because pace slows down and every possession is important. Defenses are much less likely to give away free points unless there’s sustained garbage time where nothing matters. Less likely here so close to pick-em.
Sharps absolutely LOVE Under 226 or higher. Many still liked Under 225.5, 225, 224.5 and 224. Resistance finally surfaced when the market dropped to 223.5. Quants most likely felt the number had fallen too far. The Lakers had the #4 pace in the NBA regular season (according to dunksandthrees.com). Pelicans around average in pace. There’s a limit to how slow things will get when one team wants to push tempo in normal game flow. Quants like Over 223.5 and Over 224.