Spain/France Advance in Euros, Argentina/Canada in Copa
Plus, Probably the Last Iteration of MLB Offensive Tinkering!
Plenty of drama on the pitch in Germany and the US as the Euros and Copa America began quarterfinal play. Not exactly excitement and in-game thrills…but drama with one game being decided in extra time, and the other three going to penalty kicks.
FRIDAY AT THE EURO’S
*Spain (-0.1 goals) beat Germany 2-1 in added time (1-all after 90+), winning shots on goal 6-5, but losing possession 51.5 to 48.5 and corner kicks 5-1. Germany was playing from behind much of the game (never ahead). Spain scored in minute #51. Germany forced extra time with a dramatic goal in minute #89. Spain went back ahead in minute #119.
So, part of Germany’s “edge” in stats came from desperation. Reports indicate Spain was getting the best of flow until taking the 1-0 lead. Germany took initiative from behind. Spain won extra time. So, feels like the “right” team won even if Germany won possession slightly and SOG+CK by a 10-7 count. Spain was the better team when the score was tied.
*France (-0.2 goals) beat Portugal on penalty kicks after no goals were scored in regulation or added time. Portugal was the aggressor, winning possession 60-40% and corner kicks 11-4. France won shots on goal 5-4, but total shots 20-15. I guess both were aggressive with shot launching. Portugal had longer and deeper possessions. Probably a tie was the “right” result, but somebody’s got to win a knockout. Another game where France didn’t sparkle on offense, but was so stingy at allowing scoring opportunities that it got the result. A lot of that going on this week.
Early line for the Spain/France semifinal is Spain -0.1 to -0.2 goals depending on how you want estimate amongst the various shops. Pretty tight, but Spain’s the slight favorite. I’ll call it -0.1 in the market Power Ratings unless sharps drive Spain higher.
Estimated “Market” Power Ratings in Euro Quarterfinals
England (2.6) vs. Switzerland (2.3) (Saturday in Dusseldorf)
Netherlands (2.4) vs. Turkey (1.5) (Saturday in Berlin)
Netherlands has been bet up to at least -0.9 goals, and you can make a case that it should be rounded to 1.0. I nudged the Dutch up to 2.4 and kept Turkey at 1.5. Might have to drop Turkey another tenth if the line settles solidly at a full goal vig-wise. England still a slight favorite at -0.25 goals on the Asian Handicap…which means 0.3 on our scale. Winners of those Saturday games will play each other Wednesday in Dortmund.
Euro First Semifinal
Spain (2.7) vs. France (2.6) (Tuesday in Munich)
Portugal was getting informed betting support leading to the quarters, so I think France at 2.6 makes more sense than 2.7. I’ll stick Spain at 2.7 for now. We’ll let the market hint at what to do before the semi’s.