Eventful day at the major soccer tournaments. Spain set up the long-anticipated Euro quarterfinal with host Germany…England BARELY survived its R16 game against unheralded Slovakia…Mexico was knocked out before the knockouts after a tie with Ecuador at Copa America…and surprising Venezuela clinched Group B to set up a Cinderella showdown with Canada in the final eight.
Let’s see what key indicator stat suggested in Sunday’s action…
SUNDAY AT THE EURO’S
*England trailed 1-0 well past minute #90 before rallying for a semi-miraculous 2-1 in over Slovakia in extra time (extra 30 minutes beyond regulation). England won possession 63-37% and corner kicks 9-1 (playing from behind most of the game), but lost shots on goal 3-2. England had 16 total shots, to 13 for Slovakia. Would have expected much more than 16-13 in shot attempts for the SUPERIOR team playing from behind from minute #25 to minute #95.
Another performance well below expectations for a British side that was laying more than a goal in regulation here. It’s hard to pin down exactly how poorly England is playing because the team is emphasizing defense against a soft schedule. Let’s focus on shots on goal.
England won that stat 3-1 vs. Serbia, lost it 7-4 to Denmark, won it 4-1 vs. Slovenia, and lost it 3-2 to Slovakia. That’s a net +1 through four games against a schedule that’s not exactly a murderer’s row. Teams Power-Rated at 2.0. 1.9, 1.4, and 1.3 on our scale. Split the difference…and England’s roughly even with a 1.7 type team in composite on shots on goal. Will really need to lift its game from this point forward.
*Spain (-1.8 goals) beat Georgia 4.1, winning possession 75-25%, shot on goal 13-0 (how is that possible!), and corner kicks 13-3. Georgia fell back to earth with a thud as a bad team in a letdown spot. Spain partied as much as played given that stat blowout. Won our SOG+CK combo 26-3!
Early lines are up for Spain/Germany and England/Switzerland. Spain had passed Germany on the futures board before the R16. We now have a head-to-head to pin down new Power Ratings. Spain is a slight favorite on the money line, so -0.1 goals vs. Germany IN GERMANY. Probably more like -0.3 to -0.4 on a neutral field. England is -0.4 goals vs. Switzerland.