Summer Breeze: Updated MLB Offense in Notes From June 26
Portugal Suffers “Worst Upset Ever” in Understandable No-Show
Portugal had no reason to win Wednesday in its group finale against Georgia at the 2024 Euros. Played a lot of backups. Didn’t matter if those backups won or lost. Unheralded (and low-rated) Georgia was playing for a spot in the knockouts. Not surprisingly IN THAT CONTEXT, Georgia sprung a 2-0 upset and made history.
Saw headlines all over sports media touting THE BIGGEST UPSET IN EURO HISTORY because of team rankings. But, Georgia didn’t beat “Portugal” in any meaningful way. Georgia beat disinterested Portuguese backups (and still lost stats pretty handily anyway).
This is why it’s so important for fans/handicappers/bettors to do their own thinking and research in major sports events. Media celebrates misleading trivia at the expense of reality. Reality may be touched upon in paragraph 7. But, if you’re trying to stay in touch with a sport by reading a lot of articles, you don’t have time to go down to graf 7 in all of them. JOURNALISM IS SUPPOSED TO EXPLAIN WHAT HAPPENED in the headline, subhead, lead paragraph, and immediate following grafs.
Been awhile since I ranted about stuff like this. But, man, how can media be THAT content to look so out-of-touch in situations like this?
TUESDAY AT THE EURO’S
*Belgium (-0.8 goals) tied Ukraine 0-0, winning possession 60-40%, corner kicks 7-3, and tying shots on goal 4-4. Disappointing form so far for Belgium, which now must now face France in the Knockouts.
*Romania (+0.1 goals) tied Slovakia 1-1, winning shots on goal 5-4, but losing possession time 58-42% and corner kicks 5-1. Some rumblings after the game about the teams agreeing to play to a tie in advance because they would both go through. You can make your own decisions about that. Romania actually wins Group E on goal differential thanks to a misleading 3-0 win over Ukraine in the opener. Worst group winner by a mile (a dog to Slovakia!). Huge underdogs in R16 to the Netherlands. (We were calling that half of the draw the “group of dearth” even before Romania tied its way into the E1 spot.)
*Georgia (+1.3 goals) beat Portugal 2-0, despite losing possession 72-28%, shots on goal 5-3, and corner kicks 11-1. Not sure how plus 1.3 goals rates in the history books for Euro upsets. Market had already adjusted down from Power Ratings because Portugal would rest key players. Backups managed to create a lot of corner kicks, but not a lot of shots on goal. Could Georgia be the worst team ever to reach the knockouts?
*Turkey (pick-em) beat Czechia 2-1, winning possession 68-32 and corner kicks 7-3, but losing shots on goal 7-5.
Net SOG+CK in Group Play
Group A: Germany +29, Switzerland +6, Hungary -7, Scotland -28
Group B: Spain +19, Italy +3, Croatia -8, Albania -14
Group C: Denmark +19, England +5, Serbia -4, Slovenia -20
Group D: France +19, Austria +1, Netherlands -2, Poland -18
Group E: Belgium +6, Slovakia +4, Ukraine -2, Romania -8
Group F: Portugal +24, Turkey +13, Czechia -5, Georgia -32
Yes, Georgia at -32 made the Sweet 16, and Romania at -8 won its group! Bottom two groups were a real mess.