Summer Stench: USA Crashes out of Copa in Notes From July 1
Portugal, France Advance in Euros, But it Wasn’t Pretty
Only soccer to talk about tonight. We’ve already run baseball notes in prior articles. Our weekly study of MLB run prevention in innings 4-8 went up a few hours ago. Updated offensive numbers using TB+W to create a Power Ratings scale were posted in the Sunday night notes.
Let’s recap in the order games were played…
MONDAY AT THE EURO’S
*Portugal (-1.2 goals) had to go to penalty kicks to survive Slovenia. Portugal won possession 72-28%, shots on goal 6-2 (on 11-4 total shots), and corner kicks 11-4. No goals through regulation and 30 minutes of extra time. Portugal’s talent depth would suggest almost a LOCK in penalty kicks…and that’s how it played out with a 3-0 sweep.
You regulars know I’m in Asia right now…and these Euro games are being played when I’m asleep. Multiple reports from different authors celebrated the courage of Slovenia. So, it must have been a feisty underdog effort even though the stats were so one-sided. Portugal had the ball almost three-fourths of the time, and won SOG +CK by a 17-6 count. Ronaldo could have won the game on a penalty kick BEFORE the penalty kicks but failed. Apparently he was emotional about one of the worst performances he’s ever had on the international stage. It’s heck to get old.
Moving forward, Portugal has the stats of a team that can go the distance, but now is dealing with what might be a crisis of confidence from its diva. Could mean a huge effort in the next game…but probably more vulnerability than game-to-game stats are suggesting.
*France (-0.5 goals) beat Belgium 1-0, winning possession 55-45% and corner kicks 5-2. Shots on goal were tied 2-2 (very low), but Belgium won total shots 5-4. Sounds like a defensive struggle that France was lucky to survive as a favorite. Haven’t played to their Power Rating since Mbappe broke his nose. Not impressive here. Though, I guess it was like England in that “not impressive” focuses mostly on attack, but defense must have been GREAT to hold Belgium to just five total shots and two on goal.
France is -0.3 over Portugal on the early Asian Handicap line for that much-anticipated quarterfinal (slight favorite at -0.25 goals). Looks like I’ve been overrating Portugal to this point, using early futures as a guide. Though, markets may have adjusted to do Ronaldo’s vulnerability. He looked old today and it was only Slovenia. France currently +450 to win the event (tied with Germany as third favorite behind England and Spain), Portugal now +750 as the fifth favorite.