UFL: Estimated “Market” Power Ratings (5/9)
Regular Season “Super Bowl” Saturday: Birmingham vs. St. Louis
The most important regular season game in the UFL goes this Saturday when the OBVIOUS top two teams Birmingham and St. Louis go head-to-head. I’ll spend some extra time on that one in this report. Let’s first update our estimate of “market” Power Ratings for the eight-team league. Here are the current point spreads I’ll be using for that effort.
Memphis +3.5/45 at Arlington
St. Louis +4/47.5 at Birmingham
Michigan -1/43 at DC
San Antonio -3/40 at Houston
To build the scale, I use two points for home field advantage. If a line is sitting on half-a-point, I’ll just use 1.5. So, Birmingham is -4 at home vs. St. Louis, I have to put the hosts two rungs higher on the ladder. Arlington is only -3.5 at home in its game. That’s sitting on a half point. I’ll call that 1.5 and put Arlington two rungs above Memphis down at the bottom. (We knew from prior weeks who goes at the top and who goes at the bottom!)
UFL “Market” Power Ratings (Entering Week 7)
87: Birmingham
85: St. Louis
79: San Antonio
78: Michigan
75: DC, Arlington
74: Houston
73: Memphis
I thought it would be fun this week to dig deeper into the obvious blockbuster. Small league. This deep into the season, we have a lot of common opponent comparisons to play around with. Let’s do that. Here are some quick box score notes from all games against common opponents. These will go roughly in chronological order. Both teams played Michigan early, Houston lately.
MICHIGAN
*Birmingham (-6.5) won on the road 20-13 in a game that saw Martinez and Corral split time. You could already see the difference in smoothness of execution between the two. Birmingham won total yardage 302-205 and rushing 161-47, but was only 2 of 10 on third downs and 1 of 6 in the red zone because of sputtering inconsistency that ended when Martinez took over full time.
*St. Louis (-6.5) lost 18-16 on a long field goal at the final gun. This was the first game of the season, which means it may be too far back to be relevant. Team is definitely better now. Ugly result at the time. Lost yardage 280-261 on 6.0 to 4.4 YPP.
Edge: Birmingham
ARLINGTON
*Birmingham (-3.5) won 27-14 on the road back in the season opener. Corral took most of the snaps. Nobody realized at the time how bad Arlington was. A statistical rout for Birmingham, winning yardage 409-262 on 6.4 to 5.5 YPP.
*St. Louis (-5) only won 27-24 at home, in a result that looks much worse now than it did at the time. Non-cover. Lost third downs 55-30%, but won yardage 344-287 on 6.9 to 5.2 YPP. So, some big plays in the mix for St. Louis, but issues driving the field and getting stops in the red zone (Arlington was 3/3).
Edge: Birmingham
DC
*Birmingham (-9) only won 20-18 at home. But, this was when the coach was still alternating QB’s, and let Corral play the whole game. Also, there was a long weather delay that wreaked some havoc. Birmingham won yardage 356-251, but was only 3 of 11 on third downs and 0/4 in the red zone because Corral just fizzles on key plays. If I recall, a couple of lost fumbles for Birmingham in the red zone kept points off the board.
*St. Louis (-3.5) won at DC 45-12. It was a squash…but the score is very inflated because of cheap points. St. Louis only gained 280 yards on 5.3 YPP, and only converted 2 of 11 third downs. TD drives of 7, 9, 36, and 44 yards were set up by turnovers and other DC miscues. Definitely have to give St. Louis credit for winning yardage 280-163 and YPP 5.3 to 2.9. This was more of a “defensive” win than the scoreboard suggests. Market may still be overrating St. Louis off this one result because too many people just look at final scores.
Edge: St. Louis (but in a comparison against Corral rather than Martinez, and with the help of a zillion cheap points)
MEMPHIS
*Birmingham has enjoyed the good fortune of playing the league’s worst team twice. Took advantage both times. Birmingham (-7) won at home 33-14, winning yardage 424-208 on 7.9 to 3.4 YPP. Birmingham (-11.5) won on the road last week 39-21, winning yardage 466-220 on 7.8 to 4.1 YPP. Line made a big adjustment because it was better understood how bad Memphis was in the second meeting. If I’m personally overrating Birmingham in my head, it’s because I’m not factoring in the TWO easy games against a doormat. It’s possible Martinez will only shine against doormats.
*St. Louis (-7) won at home 32-17, winning yardage 355-127 on 5.4 to 3.3 YPP . Solid, workmanlike job…granting that it came against a dreg. To me, you have to give the nod to Birmingham in the comparison against this opponent…but we may just be seeing that two relatively even teams bully bad opponents differently. I should probably be giving more respect to the St. Louis defense.
Edge: Birmingham
HOUSTON
*Birmingham (-7.5) won at Houston two weeks ago, winning yardage 358-271 on 6.6 to 4.8 YPP. This will be a good comparison point because both Birmingham and St. Louis played Houston in the past two weeks. Typically solid stuff from Martinez. Though, again, it’s come against a bad team. St. Louis will offer a real litmus test.
*St. Louis (-12) beat Houston at home 22-8, winning yardage 242-217 on 4.3 to 3.9 YPP. Stats don’t match the score. But, St. Louis had TD drives of 80, 62, and 67 yards…so it’s not like the points were cheap. Another great defensive effort from St. Louis. If you only look at yardage stuff, that’s a huge edge for Birmingham considering the home road split. Again, though, it’s possible that St. Louis blows people out “with defense” in a way that shrinks the yardage differential we’re used to seeing in football blowouts. Think back to the past college football season, Michigan was kinda like that in those early games without Harbaugh on the sidelines.
Edge: Birmingham
I’m glad I went through that exercise because it at least spotted a potential trap. As great as Birmingham has looked with Martinez running the show, it could just be that the roster is well-suited to bullying bad teams rather than playing championship-caliber within a subset of quality. The only subset of quality in the UFL right now is THESE TWO TEAMS! Birmingham can’t play itself. First litmus test of the year is Saturday. (If you remember our Super League study in the NFL, well…THIS is the Super League in the UFL.)
St. Louis now looks very much like a “defensive dog” that hasn’t had a chance to show that off because it will only be a dog in this league to Birmingham. I’m getting flashbacks to pro football from 40 years ago, or even the Billy Tubbs days as a basketball coach at Oklahoma. Talented teams can run up big scores and stats against outmanned opponents…but suddenly the announcers are yelling “What the heck is going on?!” when they crumble in the spotlight against a quality defense. (Or, you know, like the Denver Nuggets earlier this week vs. Minnesota).
I no longer LOVE Birmingham “with Martinez” as a juggernaut that’s going to crush everyone in its wake. Could still happen. But, there are enough question marks here for me to just lean lightly to Birmingham (-4, up from -3.5) rather than suggest that’s a truly bad number. I think all the box score stats with Martinez suggest -6 is a better line than -3.5 or -4. This potential defensive dog dynamic for St. Louis is legitimate, though.
One of the good things about being a stathead for eons is that you eventually learn to see when stats have some hot air in them. There’s just no way to know right now how much hot air is in Birmingham’s stat blowouts over cupcakes. We may have a grinder Saturday afternoon that will have me regretting not leaning to Under 47.5.
For now, amidst the fog…I’m going to let respect for Martinez’s versatility…all the lines in bold/italics above that said Edge: Birmingham…the fact that Birmingham’s played four of its six games so far on the road while that’s split 3-3 for St. Louis…and the fact that home field will probably matter somewhat Saturday add up to a lean. I think Birmingham -4 makes sense for a lean given all that. I’m interested to see if St. Louis turns out to be a defensive dog. (And, what Martinez does if that’s true!)
That’s it for this week’s UFL discussion. Back with you Sunday night to run the full weekend’s box scores. Though, if this St. Louis/Birmingham is great or interesting, I’ll try to put up a stat recap Saturday night if time permits. NBA playoff coverage continues on its usual schedule. See you again soon.