A couple of Friday night games to write up. And, we’ll get caught up with Thursday too.
*UNLV (+8.5) upset Kansas 23-20 despite getting outplayed in everything but turnovers. Kansas won yardage 302-267, yards-per-play 6.0 to 4.1, third downs 42-15%, and rushing 199-181. Vegas won TOs 2-0, and was helped by a relatively cheap 33-yard TD drive.
A lot of social media response to this one because many “sports betting media” contributors are based in Las Vegas…and because there were pundits from all over the place picking Kansas as a dark horse to have a relevant year. (Tough to make that case after back-to-back losses as favorites to Illinois and UNLV!)
*This final score launched a stunning amount of UNLV HAS A GREAT HEAD COACH tweets, even though his team was just outgained 6.0 to 4.1 per play, could only go 2 of 13 on third downs, and posted a passing line of 7-18-0-86. (Yes, I’m a fan of the coach too…but at least mention how lucky the win was!)
*On the other side, such vitriol for the Kansas offensive approach that’s supposedly ruined a stud quarterback. Yes, he is sloppier than in the past. Both upset losses were triggered by turnovers (4-1 at Kansas, 2-0 here) rather than sluggish “overall” play. Kansas outgained Illinois 327-271, converted 46% of third downs, and had two 81-yard TD drives. Kansas outgained UNLV 352-267, adding TD drives of 81 and 94 yards. Don’t send the coordinator to the gallows just yet. This isn’t anything like what happened to Notre Dame last week (only 286 offensive yards as 28-point favorites vs. Northern Illinois. NC State only gained 143 yards on 2.9 YPP at home against Tennessee for goodness sake).
So, be careful drawing big conclusions off the final score and cover margin. UNLV’s prospects are looking up…but this wasn’t a breakout performance by any means. If your QB is 7-18-0-86 passing on the road, you’re not about to take the world by storm. Kansas may struggle through a transition. But, the team could re-arrive quickly if it simplifies things and cuts down on TOs.
Anyway, thought all that was missing from post-game coverage and wanted to get it down on paper. Be careful lifting UNLV in your Power Ratings because game stats don’t really justify that. Be wary of Kansas. Sometimes TO debacles continue for weeks because coaches are stubborn and QB’s aren’t a good fit for a change in approach. Other times, problems are fixed (Alabama made a deep run last season despite looking so awful early in the season at home against Texas).
*Kansas State (-7) beat Arizona 31-7, winning yardage 391-324, yards-per-play 6.1 to 5.3, third downs 54-36%, rushing 235-56 (!), and TOs 1-0. Arizona also had three fourth down failures that were virtual TOs because they ended drives. K-State was helped by a punt return TD, but was still 3 of 9 in TD/drive ratio, to just 1/9 for the visitor.
Both teams were ranked. Feels like Arizona was exposed as a pretender here given it’s helplessness at the point of attack. This is the Kansas State team that almost lost at Tulane last week (probably should have). You should probably knock Arizona down a couple of points in your Power Ratings.
Thursday: Arizona State (+2.5) won at Texas State 31-28, winning TOs 3-1 but losing almost everything else. Texas State also had two fourth down failures to just one for ASU. Texas State won yardage 400-347, YPP 5.3 to 4.8, third downs 47-44%, and rushing 132-101. As I write this, ESPN’s website still hasn’t posted a drive chart. So, I can’t pinpoint how TSU underachieved those stats beyond the giveaways (if there was anything beyond the giveaways that mattered). Wasn’t by much. Can’t see any reason to adjust Power Ratings much.
That’s it for this quickie covering Thursday and Friday nights. Back with paid subscribers sometime Saturday night (possibly overnight) to run some numbers from game day results. So few marquee matchups…will let stories develop then decide what to write about. Hadn’t expected to discuss Notre Dame/Northern Illinois at this time last week! Let’s see what’s about to unfold!
Thanks for reading. See you again soon.