Will Warmer Weather Make Mid-Game Pitching Run Prevention Harder?
Update of MLB Run Prevention Study in Innings 4-8 (thru 6/16)
As I was writing up this week’s report, it became clear that a lot of teams had suffered really crappy weeks at mid-game run prevention. Even the vaunted New York Yankees were suddenly getting knocked around. Some staffs got pounded. Pittsburgh allowed 15 mid-game runs in one game! Los Angeles Angels allowed 13 such runs one game. Colorado allowed 12, and it wasn’t even at altitude.
We should at least pay attention to the potential that hot weather makes it REALLY hard to shut down opponents in innings 4-8. Even if it’s something as simple as pitcher fatigue…paying attention to how managers handle that (or don’t)…and how vulnerable the worst staffs are could help your handicapping analysis yield smarter decisions.
Let’s keep that in mind as we run through last week’s performances. First, a definition of terms for any first-time readers. If you’ve been reading every Monday, you can skip the definition.
*SHUTDOWN PERCENTAGE: which we’re defining as any time a staff allows 0 or 1 run in that mid-inning stretch of a game. If a staff shuts down the opposing offense, that’s obviously a great thing. Allowing 2 or more runs means the staff didn’t shut them down.
*RUNS ALLOWED PER MID-GAME: It can be good to know for Over/Under consideration which teams really get rocked in the mid-game. Wanted to keep track of that as well in case it was just as important, or MORE important than shut down percentage.
*RECENT FORM: I put last week’s numbers in game order in parenthesis so you can see what each team is doing lately. That will help signal any course changes (previous studs falling apart, previous stragglers fixing problems). Not going to put a lot of weight on recent form. But, sometimes you do spot course changes…particularly if you’re doing that week-to-week and paying attention.
ELITE (54% or more shutdowns in innings 4-8)
Philadelphia: 59% shutdowns, 1.9 per game (Last Week: 0-8-5, 1-5-4)
LA Dodgers: 54% shutdowns, 1.8 per game (Last Week: 1-3-0, 3-7-0)
Baltimore: 54% shutdowns, 1.8 per game (Last Week: 0, 0-2-2, 1-0-3)
Where did the New York Yankees go?! They’d been in our headlines for awhile. Now, not even in the elites! More on NYY in the next section.
Actually, everyone but Baltimore worsened in last week’s top four. Phils had four AWFUL performances, but still lead MLB comfortably. We’ll see these elites are about to fall back to earth…or if ALL of MLB is about to take a step backward because weather is getting hot. If EVERYBODY takes two steps backward, the elites are still elite…just in less-friendly pitching circumstances.