Yankees Mid-Game Pitching Still Struggling, Phils All Alone
Update of MLB Run Prevention Study in Innings 4-8 (thru 6/23)
Time to update our weekly study of MLB run prevention in innings 4-8. Baseball fans/bettors are already fairly knowledgeable about starting pitchers and closers. We’re hoping this study will help shed some light in the bridge innings that start with “second time through the lineup” and continue up until ninth inning drama might develop.
You regulars know the terms by now. Feel free to scroll down to the updated data through Sunday’s action. If this is your first time reading about this study, here’s a quick explanation of what we’re monitoring…
*SHUTDOWN PERCENTAGE: which we’re defining as any time a staff allows 0 or 1 run in that mid-inning stretch of a game. If a staff shuts down the opposing offense, that’s obviously a great thing. Allowing 2 or more runs means the staff didn’t shut them down.
*RUNS ALLOWED PER MID-GAME: It can be good to know for Over/Under consideration which teams really get rocked in the mid-game. Wanted to keep track of that as well in case it was just as important, or MORE important than shut down percentage.
*RECENT FORM: I put last week’s numbers in game order in parenthesis so you can see what each team is doing lately. That will help signal any course changes (previous studs falling apart, previous stragglers fixing problems). Not going to put a lot of weight on recent form. But, sometimes you do spot course changes…particularly if you’re doing that week-to-week and paying attention.
ELITE (one team) and PRETTY GOOD (51% or more shutdowns in innings 4-8)
Philadelphia: 58% shutdowns, 1.9 per game (Last Week: 2-3-4, 1-1-1)
LA Dodgers: 51% shutdowns, 1.8 per game (Last Week: 0-3-3-3, 2-2)
Baltimore: 51% shutdowns, 2.0 per game (Last Week: 1-3-2, 12-2-4)
Cleveland: 51% shutdowns, 2.1 per game (Last Week: 4-0-1, 1-1-2)
Minnesota: 51% shutdowns, 2.1 per game (Last Week: 2-1-1, 5-0-0)
Philadelphia is now all alone atop the mountain. Maybe the only team with the mindset AND skill set to impose meaningful pitching will in these middle innings. The Dodgers and Orioles slid back a bit. LAD had to play a four-game series in Colorado, so that’s not necessarily a sign of bad things to come. Orioles were a bit overdue to regress. Not the kind of team that would typically post a 12 though!