Zig Zag Goes 2-1 Again, as do Unders in Plodding Playoffs
Indiana, Dallas Now 1-1, but Phoenix Phalters
Playoff-style basketball continued Tuesday night with relatively slow games (95-94-91 possessions) featuring bounce backs in two of three series. And, betting markets continued to trail the totals trend with two Unders cashing tickets by 13.5 and 27.5 points. Indiana/Milwaukee did go Over…but that was just the third Over in 14 games played in the main brackets.
Oddsmakers, sharps, and recreational bettors just haven’t been prepared for scoring dropping THIS FAR from 2023-24 regular season norms. Only 14 games, let’s do a quick number line from low to high (midpoints in parenthesis).
180, 182, 186, 189, 198, 200, (203, 205), 206, 208, 215, 215, 217, 233
About a dozen points below the median Over/Unders posted by the market. And, the market numbers have been coming down through the playoffs. So, what, 15 points below initial expectations before the playoffs started?
Fun story to watch develop. It’s not really breaking through into the mainstream yet. And, even when it is discussed, it’s more of a “here’s a trend” thing rather than a “the market is actually struggling with this!”
Something to follow until the market catches “down” to the reality of playoff-style basketball involving many teams that know how to defend.
Let’s run the numbers from Tuesday…
Minnesota (-3) 105, Phoenix 83
2-point Pct: Phoenix 48%, Minnesota 57%
3-pointers: Phoenix 36%, Minnesota 28%
Free Throws: Phoenix 15/19, Minnesota 26/30
Rebounds: Phoenix 41, Minnesota 39
Turnovers: Phoenix 19, Minnesota 13
Estimated Pace: 95 possessions
I guess Phoenix wanted to illustrated my point about how some zig-zag teams can only compete for part of the game in a bounce back spot. Suns lost the first quarter, but did lead 51-50 at halftime as a dog. So, “micro-bets” went 1-2, while only betting Phoenix for the full game went 0-1. If you were splitting up a regular bet into three micro units for 1Q, 1H, and full game, that’s down a third of a unit with the general theme rather than a full unit. Something to think about down the road…because we’re about to see a bazillion bounce back spots the next several weeks.
Game Two was slower than G1, with 95 possessions rather than 99. Phoenix did a much better job on the boards, winning 41-39 instead of losing 52-28 (!!). But, turning the ball over 19 times trumped that. Suns shot a little bit worse inside the arc too.
Very impressive performance from Minnesota. Not just bucking the zig-zag, but dominating the second half when this could have been a service break the other way. Second half scores in the series are now 59-44 and 55-42 for the Timberwolves. About as emasculating as it gets for the Suns. And, suggests the potential for Minnesota/Denver being a blockbuster second round attraction if both make it through.
Minnesota lead the NBA in defensive efficiency in the regular season. For now, the Twolves seem very well suited to “playoff style” basketball. Championship caliber defense in these first two games.
As the crow flies, this was the seventh straight Under in the NBA playoffs, with six of those seven missing the market by double digits. We’re about to see some points in Indiana/Milwaukee momentarily (Pacers have the worst defense in the brackets, and that game had some pace). But, it’s still a bit astonishing to me how hard the market was finding is “chasing reality” challenge on these Over/Unders to this point in the first round slate.