Zig Zag Leads to Monday Playoff Thrillers, but no Upsets
Sixers, Lakers Lose at the Buzzer to Knicks, Nuggets
Great night of basketball, with down-to-the-wire thrillers in New York and Denver. Bettors on the zig-zag theory expecting bounce backs from Game One losers went 2-1. But, when the dust had settled…three more home teams had won straight up (11-0 so far!), and three more games had stayed Under the total (nine of 11 Unders so far, including eight straight!)
Let’s run key indicator stats in the order games were played. We’ll start with the boring one…
Cleveland (-5.5) 96, Orlando 86
2-point Pct: Orlando 44%, Cleveland 51%
3-pointers: Orlando 9/35 (26%), Cleveland 12/39 (31%)
Free Throws: Orlando 19/26, Cleveland 16/26
Rebounds: Orlando 41, Cleveland 48
Turnovers: Orlando 16, Cleveland 15
Estimated Pace: 95 possessions
Not quite a clone of the first game back on Saturday. But, some astounding similarities across the box score. Final score of that one was 97-83. This one ended 96-86. Let me just stack the list so it’s easier to read.
Orlando shot 20/49 on 2-pointers in G1, then 20/45 in G2
Orlando shot 8 of 37 on treys in G1, then 9 of 35 in G2
Orlando made 19 FTs in G1, then 19 again in G2
Orlando grabbed 40 rebounds in G1, then 41 in G2
So much for changing things up to get a different result. Loser of G1 can’t do a zig zag if the steering wheel doesn’t work. A few differences cancelled out. More TOs Monday for Orlando wiped out the improved shooting percentage on deuces. TOs jumped from 12 to 16. Maybe the team got more aggressive…but that didn’t end up meaning anything.
Second straight game where both teams were lousy on 3-pointers, which kept the scoring sum WAY below the market total. This one stayed Under by 23. I keep talking about it…but it keeps being unbelievable. Reality is SO FAR AWAY from the market!
Cleveland is clearly much better at the “classic” stuff that matters most in playoff-style basketball. Cavs won 2-point shooting 55-41% and 51-44% so far, and rebounding 54-40 and 48-41. It’s very common for the host of G3 to have a peak result. First game in front of a rabid home crowd mugging for the cameras. If the G3 host lost the first two on the road, the series-leading visitor has reason to take its foot off the gas after two good results. Oddsmakers will try to account for that in their openers. Old-school sharps will be looking to take Orlando at an affordable price, before probably coming back to Cleveland for value in G4.
What’s going to happen to the Over/Under? Teams have played to 180 and 182 against totals of 206.5 and 205.5. Will the market come down below 200? Might need to do that if this is what the series is going to look like.