Are Georgia and Ohio State Really “Pick-em” With the College Football Field?
A Discussion about Current Futures Prices
Most college football coverage in this writing project will revolve around “how the sharps are betting” before games are played…and “let’s look at the key stats” after games are played. If you were here last season, you already know the drill. If you’re new since then…that’s coming up in several weeks. (In the NFL, we also estimate “market” Power Ratings for all 32 teams, and discuss other topics on the fly as they come up).
I won’t be doing any advance handicapping for college football. I’m a stathead, and I want to see numbers before looking for leans that make sense. But, something happened this week involving college football futures that I wanted to talk about.
First, let me run a few composite numbers for odds to win the National Championship. Got these from the oddschecker website. These accurately paint the big picture in terms of expectations. (I put the percentage equivalents in parentheses.)
Clear of the Field
Georgia +300 (25%)
Ohio State +325 (23.5%)
Other Top Contenders
Texas +775 (11.4%)
Oregon +800 (11%)
Alabama +1400 (6.7%)
Mississippi +1500 (6.3%)
LSU +1700 (5.6%)
Notre Dame +2000 (4.8%)
Penn State +2200 (4.3%)
I’m going to stop right there even though other traditional powers are getting consideration. More on those in a moment. It’s an important stopping point for today’s discussion. The first two teams, Georgia and Ohio State, add up to 48.5%. Those next seven teams add up to 49.1%. Virtual equilibrium.
So, if you’re imagining a “battle” between those sets of teams, it’s pick-em. Georgia and Ohio State as a duo are a coin flip with that next hunk of seven teams as to which group would spit out the winner. Even though either UGA or OSU would be a favorite straight up on a neutral field right now over any of the seven…the percentage chances of a representative from either group running the table are very close to even in that “two teams” vs. “seven teams” comparison.
Even if you think “there’s no way ‘so-and-so’ from that second group” can go all the way…there’s enough of an “anything can happen” dynamic that any individual team from that second group could turn out to be much better than expected, could peak late in the season, could catch some breaks in the new postseason structure, whatever. (Or, Georgia and/or Ohio State could suffer injuries, have bad luck in a close loss, and so on.)
One other team has around a 4% chance. Florida State. If we round out the top 10, teams 3-10 would be a slight favorite over teams 1-2. We’d be at 52.9% for bottom eight, 48.5% for the top two.
If you’re thinking about the rest of the major college universe percentages would cause that price to go higher. All of the following teams are around 3%: Michigan, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri, Tennessee, and USC. That’s 21% more percentage points…which puts “conceivable contenders” ahead about 74% to 48.5%. Call it 75% to 50% so the math is easy to do in your head…and the “conceivable contenders” should be about -150 on a no-juice line.
Of course, there’s a whole slew of teams at 1% or 2% in an “anything can happen” reality. Including those would lift the field another couple of dimes.
Important question for handicappers. REALISTICALLY, should you be thinking about those 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, or even 5% teams as ZERO regardless? They have to go on a futures board because sports books want to take bets…and alumni will throw something down on their teams for fun anyway. Or, do those percentages really reflect TRUE odds? All of those 1% teams really do have a 1% chance…and the true “contest” of Georgia and Ohio State vs. the full field would have the field about a -170 favorite give-or-take?
I’m asking because the South Point in Las Vegas put up a fun prop for fans to bet the other day, listing Georgia and Ohio State as pick-em vs. the Field. This, even though their own futures prices would make the field a stout favorite based on the percentage equivalents. Is this an acknowledgement that all of those 1%, 2%, and so on schools are truly 0%, and it’s a coin flip between the Bulldogs/Buckeyes combo and other top threats? Or, is there a lot of value betting the Field around pick-em in an “anything can happen” universe that may have been randomized even more by a postseason tournament?
Let’s see how the line gets bet in coming days. That will tell us what (at least some) sharps think about the true meaning of futures prices, and how we should interpret them before a season starts, and as a season progresses.
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