As College Playoffs Approach, Is EVERYONE Turning Into Penn State?

Ohio State Definitely, Texas Maybe, Georgia Kinda, PSU’s Already There!

In our Friday stat recap, we wondered aloud if teams contending for the 12-team national championship were turning into Penn State. No disrespect intended for fans of the Nittany Lions. You can go a long way bullying cupcakes with a safe approach, then hoping to catch some breaks in litmus tests (even if you ultimately flunk most of those litmus tests.) Hard to earn a parade…but at least you go to a marquee bowl most seasons. It’s a lot better than being crappy!

Penn State has earned the respect it gets…while also earning the criticism it gets.

Let’s add some context to the list we started late Friday night…

*Oregon looked a lot like Penn State in a recent road win at Wisconsin. Badgers weren’t good enough to go to a bowl this season. Ducks barely won a grinder, despite getting the best of stats. Season finale was a comfortable win as a big favorite over a bad road team, which is also something Penn State does.

*Ohio State looked like a glorified grinder against Nebraska and Penn State, and in box score stats vs. Indiana…then might as well have been wearing all white uniforms with blue numbers in a ridiculous 13-10 home loss to Michigan as 20-point favorites. Buckeyes struggled to move the ball all day. When they did, they’d miss a short field goal. That stretch of games listed above raises very serious questions about Ohio State’s chances to run a tournament table. And, they also raise questions about why offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is still considered a guru when he hasn’t done much guru-like in a few years now. Once defenses figure out how to stop the occasional guru, he’s not a guru any more. That reality goes back decades now.

*Texas looked like the worst of Penn State in a home loss to Georgia, and then only scored 17 points in a mistake-filled win over Texas A&M. Not quite Penn State-like Saturday night. Nittany Lions usually grind and punt, while Texas missed a FG, turned the ball over twice, threw a TD pass to the wrong team, and had a punt blocked. The Texas defense was certainly Penn State-like in saving the day. Longhorns enter the SEC Championship game looking more like a grinder than the high-octane thrill show everyone was expecting this past summer.

*Penn State IS Penn State, and kept being Penn State Saturday by bullying outmatched Maryland. The best of Penn State sizzles when opposing defenses are vulnerable at the point of attack.

*Notre Dame hasn’t had a real litmus tests in several weeks, but looked like too grinder-ish in the early season loss to Northern Illinois and a tight game much of the night at Texas A&M. Interestingly, for the purposes of this article…the Irish won a 49-35 shootout against USC in the Coliseum Saturday, on the same field where Penn State won a 33-30 OT shootout back in mid-October. (Penn State had better stats than the score would have suggested in that one.)

*Georgia looked like the worst of Penn State in the loss at Ole Miss, and when falling behind 27-13 Friday night to Georgia Tech.

*Tennessee looked like the worst of Penn State in losses to Georgia and Arkansas, and through much of wins over Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, and Oklahoma. Jeez, the Vols even fell behind Vandy Saturday 14-0 and 17-7 before snapping out of it.

*SMU hasn’t played a playoff contender all season…though BYU is a kinda/sorta contender and beat SMU 18-15 early in the season. Mustangs probably aren’t an ideal match for this theme (yet). We’ll see what happens vs. a more physical team if they make the playoffs.

*Indiana looked like the worst of Penn State in a loss to Ohio State and a recent win over Michigan. Hoosiers bullied helpless Purdue in Saturday’s season finale. Penn State bullied Purdue two weeks ago.

Beyond this point, it’s hard to know who else to throw on the list. Alabama might be back in consideration. Tide looked like the worst of Penn State in that recent loss at Oklahoma. We mentioned Friday that Miami did things extremely differently than Penn State. Out-of-control Hurricanes may be out-of-the-brackets after a defensively-ridiculous loss at Syracuse.

Let’s run stat summaries from Saturday action involving the teams we just discussed. A bazillion games Saturday. Will take me a few more hours to gather and write up numbers from all the other major conference action. We start this recap with the upsets.

(Note that YPP stands for yards-per-play, DRIVE POINTS are only those scored on drives of 60 yards or more, and CLUTCH TD DRIVING DISTANCE is the sum total of yardage scored only on touchdowns when it was a one-score game.)

*#2 Ohio State (-20) lost to Michigan 13-10, winning total yards 252-234, YPP 4.3 to 4.0, drive points 7-0, and clutch TD driving distance 75-2. Michigan won third downs 50-38%, and rushing 172-77. Both teams had two TOs and one 4D failure. Ohio State missed short field attempts of 38 and 34 yards. Michigan’s only TD drive was a super-duper-cheap 2-yarder. Ohio State is supposed to win these types of games. Creative geniuses running the offense with a veteran QB flunked what shouldn’t have even been a litmus test. (Possibly delaying the inevitable first foreshadowed in the Nebraska game).

*#6 Miami (-12) lost at Syracuse 42-38, winning yardage 503-479, YPP 7.5 to 6.8, rushing 154-99, and drive points 38-35. Syracuse won third downs 70-55% (!), and clutch TD driving distance 308-288. Both teams had a TO. Syracuse had a 4D failure, but was helped greatly by a fumble return TD in the second half. Miami’s offense is truly explosive. Miami’s soft defense makes its opponents explosive too. Given the stakes, just astonishing to allow 70% third down conversions and 308 total yards on TD drives when it was a one-score game. Miami was lucky to beat Virginia Tech, even luckier to beat Cal, and couldn’t survive Georgia Tech and Syracuse. Probably undeserving of a playoff bid…though it’s hard to decipher true clarity on the bubble this season.

*#3 Texas (-4.5) won at Texas A&M 17-7, winning yardage 458-248, YPP 5.9 to 4.4, third downs 47-36%, rushing 240-102, drive points 14-0, and clutch TD driving distance 173-0. Both teams had 2 TOs. One of those was a pick-six scored by A&M for its only TD. Horns also had a punt blocked but a heroic defensive stand saved the day. Texas missed a 48-yard FG attempt…and at least one missed FG seems inevitable in the playoff given this season’s less-than-ideal accuracy. If you only look at raw stats…this was a ROUT for Texas. Huge blowout for a game where the host had rivalry upset potential. Horns could only turn +210 yards into a Penn State-style grinder that backers had to sweat.

*#1 Oregon (-17.5) beat Washington 49-21, winning yardage 458-244, YPP 7.3 to 4.3, third downs 63-33%, rushing 222-43, drive points 28-14, and clutch TD driving distance 144-0. Both teams had one TO and zero 4D failures. Boy, was Washington lousy on the road this season. Solid tune-up for the Big 10 title tilt.

*#4 Penn State (-26.5) beat Maryland 44-7, winning yardage 412-194, YPP 5.2 to 3.4, third downs 33-17%, rushing 219-72, drive points 14-0, clutch TD driving distance 90-25, and TOs 3-1. Maryland also had two 4D failures to just one for Penn State. Stats not as dominant as the score suggested. Penn State had a cheap TD drive of 13 yards, and a fairly cheap 30-yard drive. But took care of business when stakes rose dramatically after Ohio State’s loss in the early TV window.

*#8 Tennessee (-9.5) won at Vanderbilt 36-23, winning yardage 538-212, YPP 7.4 to 4.3, third downs 73-40%, rushing 281-108, drive points 28-9, clutch TD driving distance 262-26, and TOs 2-1. Both teams had a 4D failure. Vandy’s early TD was on a kickoff return. Also a cheap TD for the host on a short 26-yard drive. It’s weird to think of Tennessee as similar to Penn State because the Vols blow-and-go much more aggressively through the air under this head coach when playing tired or soft defenses. But, in LITMUS TESTS, this Tennessee group ends up looking a lot like Penn State has in litmus tests.

*#9 SMU (-12.5) beat California 38-6, winning yardage415-254, YPP 6.5 to 4.0, third downs 30-20%, rushing 115-95, drive points 21-0, clutch TD driving distance 116-0, and TOs 1-0. Cal also had two 4D failures to just one for SMU. Solid responsible win in what could have been a flat spot. Fun to see the Mustangs close the season so well. Would be even more fun to see them run into Texas in the playoff so people can stop asking those “Who’s the best team in Texas?” questions.

That’s it for this first of two Saturday stat recaps. We’ll run numbers for paid subscribers from all the other major conference action in a follow-up that will be in your inboxes before breakfast time Sunday. If you’re not already a paid subscriber and would like this kinda material in your email inbox (virtually 365 days a year), the cost is just $20 for a calendar month (busy December ahead!), or $75 for a calendar year that would take you past Thanksgiving of 2025.

See you again soon.

PS: If you’re a big Penn State fan, this article wasn’t meant as a dig. Perennial success is inarguable and laudable. It’s just a tough style to take deep into a championship chase most seasons…but the ’24-25 version sure has a chance to do that. I think even ardent fans of PSU probably wouldn’t want to see a 12-team tournament mostly featuring Penn State clones!