Do the KC Chiefs Really Have a Poor Run Defense?
Or, Is That An Illusion Created by Their Defensive Choices?
I’ve managed to tune out a lot of Super Bowl analysis this week. Narratives were set fairly early. Everyone’s now just repeating what’s been said since Sunday night and Monday morning. That’s going to continue all through NEXT week. I’ll be tuning out most of THAT too!
But, one thing I’ve heard a few times has jumped out. It’s something that’s technically true…but seems hard to believe in the big picture. How can BOTH of the following be accurate?
*KC grades out poorly in run defense
*KC grades out wonderfully in overall defense
How can you be BAD at stopping the run, but GREAT at getting stops? Opponents that know you’re bad at stopping the run would just run all the time, wouldn’t they? At least on important plays where they really needed yards for a first down or touchdown.
Framing the debate…
The Chiefs have allowed 4.5 yards-per-carry this season. Team Rankings has that as #25 in the NFL out of 32 teams. Those of you who like DVOA know that Kansas City ranks #27 in rush defense by that metric. The people making this point aren’t pulling it out of thin air. Commonly used stats suggest KC is bad against the run.
Yet, soft run defense would be disastrous in the red zone. Kansas City ranks #8 in the league at preventing TDs being scored in the red zone.
Soft run defense would be disastrous on third downs. Kansas City ranks #10 in the league at preventing third down conversions.
Soft run defense would create lousy scoreboard results because opponents would just run roughshod over, through, and around you all day long. We talked a couple of weeks ago about how Kansas City has been MAGNIFICENT at keeping opponents from piling up big point totals. Here’s an updated number line that includes all playoff games.
2023-24 Chiefs Points Allowed from low to high (medians)
7-8-9-10-10-12-14-17-17-(17-17)-20-20-20-20-21-21-24-24-27
Nobody’s scored 28 points or more! Only three opponents have scored more than 21 points. How could a team hold more than HALF of its foes to 17 points or less if it was truly bad against the run? You know football. That’s not even imaginable!
Could it be turnovers? Maybe Kansas City allows a lot of rushing yards, but gets so many takeaways that the Chiefs don’t get hurt on the scoreboard? NO! KC’s defense only had 17 takeaways during the regular season. One per game. Chiefs ranked #27 in the NFL in takeaways.
What seems very clear to me is that the poor rush defense rankings aren’t describing “skill sets,” but rather “choices” the Chiefs make within the overall big picture of elite team defense. You often hear QBs talking about “taking what the defense gives you.” KC will “give you” some rushing yardage in the middle of the field before clamping down in a way that makes them an ELITE defense overall. What’s important is keeping opponents out of the end zone. The Chiefs don’t care if you run for some yards between the 25’s while they’re preventing a big play.
So, if you think “the Chiefs are bad against the run,” you’re probably wrong. They’re purposely allowing for some irrelevant rushing yards within their overall shut-down scheme.
A lot of people picked Baltimore to bully Kansas City last week because the Ravens’ elite rushing game was going to have its way with the Chiefs lousy run defense. Then, they spent Sunday night and Monday HOLLERING about how the
Ravens’ offensive gameplan was insane because Lamar Jackson threw 37 passes while the team only rushed 16 times. Maybe KC made a (smart) adjustment about how they were going to keep Baltimore from moving the ball (27% on third downs) and scoring (0/1 in the red zone). A strategic adjustment you can make if you actually DON’T have a bad run defense.
This is OBVIOUSLY a big deal if you’re trying to pick the winner of the Super Bowl. If Kansas City really is bad against the run, then Christian McCaffrey (1,459 rushing yards on 5.4 ypc in the regular season) and Deebo Samuel (6.1 ypc when he pops in as a weapon) are going to impose San Francisco’s will in what could be a decisive win.
But, if Kansas City’s “big picture” defensive stats are what matter most, and its “recent form” advantages (discussed yesterday in our Power Ratings article) are relevant, then the wrong team is favored.
Me, I’m leaning toward the latter. But, I am aware that Kansas City was on pretty thin ice at Buffalo two weeks ago. And, the fact that it let Buffalo move the ball on the ground was a big reason why.
Buffalo scored 24 points with 50% on third downs, 182 rushing yards, three of four for 75% in the red zone, and TD drives of 75-75-75 yards. The Bills ran 78 plays…so only allowing 24 points on 368 total yards is still pretty darned good. But, what Buffalo did represents the far right side of that Chiefs’ defensive number line we just looked at. Bills made it to 24 points, and it would have been 27 (at least) if not for that late missed field goal. San Francisco can do what Buffalo did.
Current Super Bowl line is San Francisco -2, with total of 47.5. That’s a “market score” of 24.75 to 22.75. The market says San Francisco should be expected to score 24.75 points. In line with Buffalo…and what the right end of the number line says about Kansas City’s defense.
The version of San Francisco that floundered (vs. expectations) against Green Bay and Detroit (especially on defense) would still be in trouble a week from Sunday. But, the version that’s just as good as (or better than) Buffalo can surely make it to the 24-27 point range with McCaffrey, Samuels, and pass distributor Brock Purdy spreading out offensive danger.
Best of luck with YOUR strategies and choices for the upcoming Super Bowl. Back with you Friday to see how sharps have been betting the big game so far. College basketball coverage resumes Saturday with a look at how sharps are betting the much-anticipated Houston/Kansas showdown of Big 12 and national powers. It’s a fun year to be focusing on the Big 12!
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