Do You Find it Helpful, Seeing Percentages With Soccer Odds?
Running Through the Euro Semifinals
I’ve lobbied for stuff like this from behind the scenes. Hasn’t resonated. Though, not much about soccer betting resonates with anybody in the US. Even fans who love soccer don’t necessarily love betting on soccer. Figured I could at least post something I envisioned and see if people like it or hate it.
Alongside betting odds for Tuesday’s Euro semifinals, I’ll also post the corresponding percentages for those odds. If a team was -200 to win, I’d stick 67% in parenthesis. If somebody was +200, I’d stick 33%. Let’s see if it hits the eye better or worse than just the odds by themselves.
Note that I grabbed these odds off X (formerly twitter) from Circa sports. All respected sports books should regularly post their odds on twitter (currently X)! Should be representative of the market, likely a bit more bettor friendly than spots you see online.
SPAIN VS. FRANCE
Odds to Advance
Spain -125 (55.6%)
France +105 (48.8%)
The great thing about a tournament format is that casual fans can bet soccer just like it’s baseball. Betting “to advance” is just betting on who’s going to win the game. Anybody who bets baseball understands this. Recreational bettors who never could figure out how baseball betting worked will still be stumped. A lot less of that these days. You can see that the percentages add up to 104.4%. That’s due to the house edge. In American football and basketball, you’re charged 11/10 to use a point spread. With money lines, vigorish is baked into pricing.
Three-Way (Regulation Only, 90 minutes plus “added” time)
Spain +160 (38%)
Draw +191 (34%)
France +208 (32%)
Here, we’re ONLY talking about REGULATION. You can bet that Spain will be ahead after regulation (essentially -0.5 goals). You can bet that France will be ahead after regulation (same). Or, you can bet that the game will be tied and go to “extra time,” the extra 30+ minutes that serve as non-sudden death overtime in a knockout format.
The way three-way pricing first hits the eye tricks many new bettors. Happened to me 40 years ago (for a second until common sense took over). Happened to SEVERAL crossover mainstream sportscasters at VSiN in their first World Cup several years back. Multiple guys said the equivalent of “it’s so hard to make a pick here, I’d just bet all three to guarantee a little profit.”
Betting all three doesn’t guarantee a profit. It would in a two-team baseball game that doesn’t have ties. If you could get the visitor at +110, and the host at +110…just bet them both at $100 to win $110 and make 10 bucks (or anything in that ratio). Easy money! If only life were that easy.
With three options, TWO HAVE TO LOSE! Bet all three, and you’re going to go 1-2. If Spain wins, the tie and France lose. The +168 you’d win on Spain doesn’t overcome the $200 you’d lose on the two $100 bets.
If you actually placed these bets, you’d realize this pretty quickly and kick yourself for being a knucklehead. Multiple hosts on VSiN gave out this advice, weren’t immediately corrected by co-hosts or producers, nor did they fix the mistake when coming out of commercial. (You can guess which ghostwriting nit blew his top about this via backchannels).
Not sure if including the percentages solves that or not. At least your eye immediately catches that Spain is 38% to win, and 66% to not win. The draw is 34% to cash, 70% to not cash. Moves the focus away from the plus signs and makes you think about which single option makes the most sense.
Let’s go to the second semifinal, where England is a slightly bigger favorite.
ENGLAND VS. NETHERLANDS
Odds to Advance
England -135 (57%)
Netherlands +115 (47%)
Personally, I like seeing the percentages here. If you think England is playing so far below form that this is a true coin-flip, you’ll see the value on Netherlands. Yes, you should see that anyway. To me, the percentages help, while always reinforcing that you’re dealing with some vigorish. Easy to forget that when making snap judgments. I swear some American football and basketball bettors don’t even think about the 11/10 existing. They’ll say something like “handicapper X has a winning record of 30-28 so far this season,” when that’s a losing record of 30 and 30.8 counting the 10% vig.
Three-Way (Regulation Only, 90 minutes plus “added” time)
England +155 (39%)
Draw +185 (35%)
Netherlands +223 (31%)
Similar prices to the first game, though Netherlands is a longer shot than France to win in regulation. Before leaving the continent, let’s look at Circa’s futures prices to lift the trophy…
ODDS TO WIN THE EUROS
Spain +186 (35%)
England +265 (27%)
France +270 (27%)
Netherlands +450 (18%)
Notice that the Spain/France bracket adds up to 62%, while the England/Netherlands half only adds up to 45%. Winner of the opener would very probably be favored in the finals. Obvious with Spain given those numbers. But, France would be a slight favorite even though both England and France are currently 27%. France has the tougher pathway. France’s 27% includes beating Spain! England’s 27% only starts with a win over the longshot.
(I’ll spare you the math, but right now France is 56% to win a final, England 48%. We know that France is 48.8% to advance to the final, and 27.4% to lift the trophy…so it would have to be 56.1% to win a final right now to make those numbers work.)
Circa hasn’t posted Copa America futures on twitter. Saw these elsewhere…
ODDS TO WIN COPA AMERICA
Argentina -125 (55.6%)
Uruguay +250 (29%)
Colombia +350 (22%)
Canada +2800 (3%)
Today’s soccer report is over. Did seeing the percentages help, or just clutter up the screen? I like it better with the percentages. But, I like estimating soccer Power Ratings on a goal supremacy scale…and that hasn’t exactly captured the world’s imagination.
I think any sports betting network that says it’s there to serve the audience and educate bettors would be well served to stick those in. Doesn’t take that much time to figure them out…once you tell the person in charge of graphics how to do it (you’d be surprised how many standard-Brand-X handicappers and media “experts” don’t know how to do it.) Broadcasters that are just there to promote their sports books may be less-inclined to do that. We’ve run some articles recently asking what the future of sports betting media will look like. Much of that will come down to whether the broadcasters themselves are there to educate or attract.
That’s it for our Monday night report. See you again Tuesday night to cover results from the Euro semi’s and Argentina/Canada. Some other topics besides soccer will pop up through the week. See you again soon.