Duke Dominant, Florida Falters but Advances, Majors Move On
No Mid-Majors Advance to Sweet 16
Phone never rang for Cinderella. Colorado State and New Mexico tried to crash the party but were turned away. (Some would argue by security guards wearing stripes). This year’s Sweet 16 is FULLY filled by major conference competition. Plenty of drama still ahead. Just not a fairy tale.
Let’s crunch Sunday’s numbers and see what REALLY happened in the opening weekend’s final action. Games are listed in order of importance…using my informal ranking based on if I reacted with “Wow, that was important” after reading the stats.
*Duke (-13) beat Baylor 89-66
What happened with Treys?
Duke 12/22 (55%), Baylor 8/25 (32%)
You might be wondering why I think this was the most important game of the day. Double-digit favorite wins big, so what? Duke played at such a high level in this victory that it’s starting to look like UCONN’s run last year. Just much better than everybody else. I had Duke and Florida separated from the field mentally. Today, Duke rose even higher while Florida looked mortal in the face of a real challenge. Faced with an often-tricky (but not vintage) Baylor defense, Duke got open looks all over the floor. Very sharp from outside for +12 points out of the 23-point victory margin. Now look at what happened inside…
What happened with everything else?
Trey-Less Efficiency: Duke 1.13, Baylor .78
Duke shot 17 of 23 on two-pointers! Duke patiently carved up Baylor for easy shots. Only 59 possessions in this game. Super-slow. Yet, Duke sored 89 points. Duke won two-point shooting 74-40%, and free throws 19/23 to 8/10. Baylor barely won rebounds 32-29 and turnovers 6-5 (clean offense from both in a super-slow game).
Championships aren’t won on the first weekend. But, this performance by Duke against high expectations and a quality opponent now clearly sets the Blue Devils apart from the field in my view. Particularly when compared to what Florida did against a similar challenge this same day. (Baylor currently #30 in kenpom as a #9 seed, UCONN currently #32 as a #8 seed.)
*Florida (-9) only beat UCONN 79-77
What happened with Treys?
Florida 9/19 (47%), UCONN 8/29 (28%)
Only one more make, but a big edge in percentage. UCONN was way too quick to launch treys on a day when they weren’t falling at a great pace. That’s 21 misses to just 10…with many of those misses being virtual turnovers. Plus three points in a game it only won by two.
What happened with everything else?
Trey-Less Efficiency: Florida .88, UCONN .88
Dead heat here. Connecticut won two-point shooting 46-45% and turnovers 12-6 (misleading because so many missed treys were virtual TOs). Florida won free throws 22/34 to 19/22 and rebounds 40-35. You can see how UCONN easily could have won this game by attempting fewer treys and attacking inside. That by itself might have equalized the FT count. Huskies made a slightly better percentage of deuces than Florida did too. By raving about Duke, I’m not saying Florida is chopped liver. I mean…posting a .88 inside vs. UCONN while also shooting 9/19 on treys is excellent. It’s just in a different class of excellence below what Duke did.
Maybe I need to stack it this way. Let’s assume both teams stay excellent at three-pointers. Here’s what happened inside the arc against comparable opponent caliber…
Duke .91, Mt. St. Mary’s .52 (plus .39)
Florida 1.16, Norfolk State .98 (plus .18)
Duke 1.13, Baylor .78 (plus .35)
Florida .88, UCONN .88 (even)
Gators still the clear favorites to reach the F4 from the West region. Maryland’s up next, then the winner of Texas Tech/Arkansas would be next.